According to EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos, Ukraine could emerge as one of the world’s most dynamic investment markets and turn into Europe’s next economic miracle, provided the country implements the necessary reforms required for European Union accession. Speaking at a Brussels forum dedicated to the economic benefits of EU enlargement, Kos outlined a comparative vision for the region’s future growth and stability.
Comparing EU Expansion to the Late 1990s
During the Brussels forum, Kos compared the current enlargement phase with the late 1990s, when Central and Eastern European nations—including her home country of Slovenia—prepared for EU accession. According to the commissioner, the years that followed proved to be a remarkable story of economic success. Many of those nations tripled the size of their economies over two decades of EU membership, setting a direct precedent for prospective members today.
Prerequisites for Growth and Legal Security
Economic gains from integration do not occur automatically, as Kos emphasized during her address. According to the European Commission, judicial reforms guaranteeing the rule of law remain vital to this process. Businesses must feel confident not only in their profit potential but also in the legal protection of their investments and fair treatment in court.
Step-by-Step Integration Before Formal Membership
Brussels is actively pushing for the gradual integration of candidate countries prior to formal accession. According to the European Commission, this strategy encompasses the single market alongside strategic sectors including energy, transport, digitalization, artificial intelligence, and defense. Kos highlighted a defense industry partnership concluded in July, which already integrates Ukraine’s defense manufacturing into European production and public procurement systems.
Geopolitical Pressures from Russia and China
The European Union faces active competition from geopolitical rivals attempting to influence candidate states. According to Kos, Russia tries to derail the enlargement process entirely, pointing to Montenegro, where cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns surged immediately after accession preparations began. Conversely, China employs a wedge strategy, with companies entering candidate markets early on the assumption they will automatically secure access to the wider EU single market once membership is finalized.
IMF Perspectives on Resilience and Reform
At the same forum, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Георгиева responded to questions from Deutsche Welle regarding Ukraine’s potential economic trajectory amidst wartime conditions and high-level corruption scandals. While declining to issue specific economic forecasts, the IMF chief affirmed that Ukraine’s EU accession prospect remains realistic. According to Georgieva, Russian aggression has exposed an unprecedented level of Ukrainian determination to overcome massive challenges, translating directly into reform momentum.
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Tackling Corruption During Wartime
Addressing structural hurdles, Georgieva acknowledged that wartime conditions naturally foster environments conducive to corruption, drawing parallels to past conflicts in the former Yugoslavia. However, the IMF head stressed that Ukrainian society is actively fighting these illicit practices. According to Georgieva, the fight remains difficult and unevenly successful, yet the active engagement of the population sets a reliable baseline for institutional reform.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Ukraine truly become an economic miracle after joining the EU?
According to EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos, Ukraine possesses the potential to become a top global investment market and a major economic engine, provided necessary rule-of-law and structural reforms are fully implemented.
What role does gradual integration play before official EU membership?
The European Commission supports early adaptation into sectors like energy, transport, AI, and defense—exemplified by a July defense industry partnership—so candidate nations benefit economically even if formal accession takes years.
How are external actors like Russia and China affecting EU enlargement?
According to EU officials, Russia uses disinformation and cyberattacks to disrupt candidate integration, while China deploys corporate expansion strategies to secure early footholds in markets ahead of EU entry.
What does the IMF say about corruption in wartime Ukraine?
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva notes that while war creates environments vulnerable to corruption, the Ukrainian population demonstrates persistent, active resistance against illicit practices to meet EU standards.
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