Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan’s efforts to attract foreign investment in its mineral-rich Balochistan province face significant headwinds following a surge in violence. In September, Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, presented a display of minerals to United States President Donald Trump, signaling a willingness to open the country’s resources to US investment. However, recent events underscore the challenges inherent in realizing that potential.
Balochistan’s Instability and Recent Attacks
On Saturday, coordinated attacks across Balochistan resulted in the deaths of 31 civilians and 17 security personnel, with the military reportedly killing 145 fighters. These attacks, carried out by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), serve as a stark reminder of the ongoing separatist movement in the province – Pakistan’s largest in area and its most impoverished – and the risks associated with investment there.
The BLA claimed responsibility for the attacks as part of its “Herof 2.0” operation, a follow-up to a similar assault in August 2024. In March, the group also attempted to hijack a passenger train, the Jaffer Express, highlighting a broader uptick in violence. According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, Balochistan saw 254 attacks in 2025, a 26 percent increase from the previous year, resulting in over 400 deaths.
Geopolitical Implications and Accusations
The violence in Balochistan is particularly sensitive given China’s substantial investments in the province, including the development of Gwadar port, a key component of the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The US also recently signed a $500 million memorandum of understanding with USSM, a US-based mining firm, to invest in mineral excavation in Pakistan.
Following the attacks, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi blamed neighbouring India, alleging Indian involvement in planning and supporting the BLA. India rejected these claims, attributing them to an attempt to deflect attention from Pakistan’s “internal failings.”
Underlying Grievances and Economic Concerns
Analysts emphasize that the roots of the crisis in Balochistan run deeper than any single incident. The province’s instability is linked to longstanding grievances over ownership of resources, political exclusion, and militarization. Balochistan, home to approximately 15 million of Pakistan’s 240 million people, remains the country’s poorest province despite its vast reserves of oil, coal, gold, copper, and gas.
Pakistan’s economy, which narrowly avoided default in 2023 with a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is reliant on these resources. However, foreign direct investment has been declining, with just $808 million received in the first half of the fiscal year 2026, down from $1.425 billion in the same period last year. The ongoing violence is likely to further deter investors.
What Might Happen Next
If the Pakistani government fails to address the underlying political and economic grievances in Balochistan, it could see continued and potentially escalating violence. This could jeopardize both Chinese and US investments, hindering Pakistan’s economic recovery. Alternatively, a renewed focus on inclusive governance and resource sharing could potentially de-escalate tensions, creating a more stable environment for investment. However, even with increased security measures, large-scale extraction projects may remain high-risk without addressing the core issues driving the insurgency.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Baloch Liberation Army?
The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) is a separatist group that has long sought independence for Balochistan and has waged a decades-long insurgency against the Pakistani state.
What is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)?
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a $60 billion project aimed at connecting southwestern China to the Arabian Sea through infrastructure development, including the port of Gwadar in Balochistan.
What were the recent accusations made by Pakistan?
Within hours of the attacks, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi blamed neighbouring India for planning and executing the attacks, a claim India has rejected.
As Pakistan seeks to attract international investment in its mineral resources, how will it balance economic development with the need to address the long-standing grievances of the people of Balochistan?
