New Zealand businesses are moving on from the hope of a post-Covid recovery, according to the 2026 2degrees Shaping Business study. Surveying 555 decision-makers between March 10 and April 10, 2026, the research indicates that firms have shifted their focus away from waiting for a return to pre-pandemic conditions and are instead adapting to a permanent state of uncertainty and new economic pressures.
Why Businesses Are Abandoning the “Return to Normal”
The latest data from the 2degrees Shaping Business study suggests a decline in the number of New Zealand businesses expecting a return to pre-Covid activity levels. 2degrees CEO Mark Callander notes that the prevailing sentiment among owners, CEOs, and directors is that the current environment of challenge and change has become the new baseline. “No one’s waiting for green shoots to emerge any more,” Callander stated. This transition marks a departure from previous years where businesses often looked for a specific point of economic rebound.
The 2degrees Shaping Business study defines decision-makers as owners, CEOs, directors, general managers, and those in C-suite roles, providing a high-level view of New Zealand’s economic sentiment.
The Role of AI in Productivity Gains
While economic optimism has shifted, businesses are finding tangible growth through technology. According to the report Productivity Propelled: The impact of AI on business performance, prepared by Deloitte Access Economics and commissioned by 2degrees, AI adoption is already boosting the bottom line. Research conducted between January and February 2026 found that the average SME earned approximately $400,000 more in FY25 compared to non-adopters, while the average large business saw an uplift of roughly $59.1 million.
2degrees Chief Business Officer Andrew Fairgray emphasizes that AI is no longer a theoretical concept. “The data is saying that AI is already in use every day across businesses. But it’s now about how that intent turns into actual real growth,” Fairgray said. Despite these gains, the report highlights that 82% of businesses are currently using AI, though many remain in the early stages, often relying on built-in features within existing tools rather than standalone implementations.
Don’t just use AI features embedded in your current software. To see the growth reported by early adopters, experts suggest redesigning business processes to fully integrate AI, transforming how the company thinks about its core operations.
Investment Trends for the Year Ahead
As businesses adjust to this “new norm,” investment priorities are shifting. Data from the 2026 Shaping Business study shows that 53% of surveyed businesses plan to increase their investment in business development, sales, and marketing, representing a 17% increase. Meanwhile, 27% of businesses report they will increase their investment in AI, marking a 5% rise in interest compared to previous assessments.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the “new norm” mean for NZ businesses?
According to 2degrees CEO Mark Callander, it signifies that businesses are no longer waiting for a rebound to pre-pandemic levels of activity and are instead proactively managing ongoing economic challenges.
How much does AI adoption impact business earnings?
Based on the Productivity Propelled report, SMEs that adopted AI earned about $400,000 more in FY25 than those that did not, while large businesses earned approximately $59.1 million more.
What are the current investment priorities for businesses?
The 2026 Shaping Business study indicates that more than half of businesses are increasing investment in sales, marketing, and business development, with a growing segment also prioritizing AI integration.
Are you adapting your business model to the current economic climate? Share your thoughts in the comments below or explore the full 2026 Shaping Business Study for more insights.
