State-driven migration has emerged as a formidable tool of hybrid pressure, challenging the traditional legal and administrative frameworks of liberal democracies. According to analysis from the European Council on Foreign Relations, foreign governments increasingly utilize human mobility to achieve strategic geopolitical objectives, exposing deep structural vulnerabilities across the European Union.
The 2021 Belarus Border Crisis and Hybrid Operations
State-controlled airlines transported individuals from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Minsk on packages priced between $2,000 and $4,000. Border troops subsequently ferried arrivals to frontier zones in government vehicles, providing tools to force crossings. Night-vision footage from October and November 2021 captured these operations in detail.
The 2016 EU-Türkiye Agreement and Leveraged Borders
While Aegean crossings initially fell, the arrangement created durable dependency. Turkish authorities transported thousands toward the Greek border at Evros, demonstrating that Ankara could open or close the border to exert political leverage during regional tensions.
Geographical Redistribution of Irregular Entries in Spain
By March 2022, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez altered Spain’s longstanding policy on Western Sahara. Irregular arrivals shifted dramatically across regions: total entries dropped from 64,019 in 2024 to 36,775 in 2025. Specifically, arrivals to the Canary Islands fell by approximately 62 per cent from nearly 47,000 to fewer than 18,000 following renewed cooperation agreements with Morocco, Mauritania, and Senegal. Concurrently, irregular entries rose by 24.5 per cent in the Balearic Islands and almost 44 per cent in Ceuta and Melilla, highlighting a distinct geographical redistribution driven by transit state cooperation.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is weaponized migration?
Weaponized migration occurs when a state deliberately moves people to put pressure on another government or gain a political advantage, utilizing migrants as instruments of foreign policy rather than spontaneous actors.
How did the 2016 EU-Türkiye deal impact border control?
The agreement subcontracted EU border management to Türkiye in exchange for €6 billion and political dialogue, creating a mechanism where Ankara retained the ability to open or close transit routes based on diplomatic leverage.
How do transit agreements affect Spanish migration routes?
Coordinated enforcement with Morocco, Mauritania, and Senegal contributed to a 42.6 per cent overall drop in irregular arrivals between 2024 and 2025, though arrivals redistributed toward Ceuta, Melilla, and the Balearic Islands.
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