France remains the clear favorite to win the World Cup, with a 34 per cent probability of lifting the trophy according to The Athletic’s live projection tool. With seven teams remaining, the tournament has transitioned from a 48-nation field to a high-stakes sprint, defined by France’s defensive dominance, Argentina’s resilience, and the emergence of dark horses like Norway.
France’s Path to Potential Victory
Didier Deschamps’ side has established itself as the team to beat by maintaining a flawless record in the knockout stages. According to tournament statistics, France has not conceded a single goal in their three knockout matches, while their attack—led by Kylian Mbappé’s eight goals and Ousmane Dembélé’s five—has proven clinical. Michael Olise currently tops the tournament’s assists chart with five, providing the service that has kept France’s goal tally at 16 across six matches.
France has conceded only two goals throughout the entire tournament, highlighting a defensive stability that has frustrated opponents like Morocco, who offered little resistance in their recent meeting.
Argentina’s Grit Against Tactical Fatigue
Argentina’s journey has been defined by late-stage heroics rather than comfortable victories. After struggling against Cape Verde and falling 2-0 behind against Egypt, the reigning champions displayed significant character by scoring three times in 13 minutes to secure a win. While their ability to rally is unquestioned, concerns remain regarding how much physical and mental energy those back-and-forth matches have drained from the squad as they prepare to face Switzerland.
The England-Norway Quarter-Final Clash
England enters the quarter-finals buoyed by a statement victory over co-hosts Mexico, despite suffering a red card for Jarell Quansah. Thomas Tuchel’s side faces a significant tactical challenge in Norway, a team anchored by Erling Haaland. According to tournament data, Haaland’s double against Brazil was instrumental in securing Norway’s first World Cup quarter-final appearance. The match will also feature a reunion for Norway’s Martin Odegaard, who faces familiar English opponents.
Spain and Belgium’s Strength in Depth
Spain’s narrow 91st-minute victory over Portugal highlighted the team’s reliance on squad depth. Mikel Merino’s late winner, assisted by Ferran Torres, proved vital after star player Lamine Yamal struggled to find his usual form. Meanwhile, Belgium has found momentum following a comeback victory against Senegal. However, their campaign faces a setback following the news that Aston Villa midfielder Amadou Onana sustained an anterior cruciate ligament injury.
Early Exits and Historical Shifts
The tournament has seen several traditional powerhouses depart prematurely. Germany’s exit against Paraguay marked another early departure for the 2014 champions, leading to the exit of head coach Julian Nagelsmann. Similarly, the Netherlands saw Ronald Koeman resign following a penalty shootout defeat to Morocco. Morocco’s own run, while ending against France, solidified their status as the first African nation to reach successive World Cup quarter-finals.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the current favorite to win the World Cup?
France is the clear favorite, with The Athletic’s projection tool citing a 34 per cent chance of them lifting the trophy.
Which team has the highest goal-scoring record in this tournament?
France leads with 16 goals scored across six matches.
Have there been any coaching changes during the tournament?
Yes. Ronald Koeman resigned from the Netherlands following their knockout exit, and Julian Nagelsmann has left his position as Germany’s head coach.
What was the most significant surprise in the round of 16?
Paraguay’s victory over Germany is widely considered one of the most significant upsets, despite their subsequent loss to France.
Which of the remaining seven teams do you believe has the strongest path to the final? Share your predictions in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for daily tactical breakdowns as the semi-finals approach.















