The Opportunity Party has cleared the 5% threshold for the first time in a 1News Verian poll, rising three points to reach 8% according to results released by 1News. The survey, carried out from August 8 to 11, 2026, places the newcomer party neck-and-neck with New Zealand First and suggests a left bloc could form a governing coalition with Opportunity.
Poll Results Show Shift in Party Support and Coalition Dynamics
According to the 1News Verian poll, Labour sits on 30%, down two points from June, while National remains steady on 29%. The Greens fell one point to 12%, ACT rose three points to 9%, and Te Pāti Māori dropped one point to 1%. New Zealand First also fell three points to 8%, matching Opportunity’s rise. Translating these figures into the 125-seat Parliament gives Labour 38 seats, National 36, the Greens 15, ACT 11, NZ First 10, and Opportunity nine. Six remaining seats are assumed under the poll’s methodology to go to other Māori electorate incumbents.
National Leadership and Caucus Confidence Vote
The poll landed as National MPs met behind closed doors at Parliament to decide they still wanted Christopher Luxon as Prime Minister, securing the party leader’s numbers in a confidence vote four months after the previous one. In preferred prime minister preferences, Luxon fell one point to 17%, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins also dropped one point to 15%. Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick stayed steady on 6%, and ACT leader David Seymour rose one point to 5%. National’s Erica Stanford and Labour’s Kieran McAnulty each rose one point to 2%. Stanford had been viewed as a leading contender if Luxon had been removed, though she repeatedly declined to state whether she has confidence in the Prime Minister.
New Zealand First Faces Scrutiny Following Recent Controversies
NZ First’s three-point fall to 8% coincided with a three-point drop for its leader Winston Peters as preferred prime minister, bringing him down to 7%. According to 1News, this follows a period in which Peters was criticized by the Prime Minister for remarks Luxon called “racist,” triggering an international and diplomatic outcry. In late July, Peters told Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan to “go back to your own country” during a parliamentary debate, drawing condemnation from political opponents, National figures, and a diplomatic protest from China. Additionally, former Labour minister Stuart Nash resigned as an NZ First election candidate in July following controversy over sexist comments. Other parties have described the governing party’s antics as damaging and circus-like.
Potential Governing Arrangements and Next Steps
On these seat numbers, neither traditionally assumed bloc commands a majority in the 125-seat Parliament. Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and two other Māori electorate MPs combined reach 59 seats, falling short of the 63 required, whereas National, ACT, and NZ First sit on 57. A Labour-Green-Opportunity arrangement would reach 62 seats, just short of a majority, while adding Opportunity to the National-ACT-NZ First grouping would produce 66 seats. However, options have narrowed after Luxon appeared to rule out working with Opportunity over tax policy—a move Labour leader Chris Hipkins claimed showed Luxon was caught on the hoof. Meanwhile, Hipkins stated earlier in the week that Labour would not work with NZ First in any government he leads, leaving Labour reliant on Opportunity, the Greens, and at least one other partner, while National faces a blocked path under current projections.
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