Headline: Indonesia‘s BMKG's Advisory</strong>"</p>”>Peak Rainy Season: Timing and Regional Distribution in 2024/2025
As the rainy season reaches its peak, understanding when and where it will be most intense can help communities brace for potential flooding. The Indonesian Meteorology, Climate and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has released predictions for the peak rainy season, which is expected to occur towards the end of and early in the new year.
When is the Peak Rainy Season?
According to BMKG, the peak rainy season for 2024 is projected to occur in November-December 2024, followed by January-February 2025. Unlike previous years, this year’s peak rainy season is expected to arrive earlier than normal. However, the accumulated rainfall during this period is predicted to be within the normal category, indicating no excessively wet or dry conditions.
Regional Distribution During Peak Rainy Season
The peak rainy season will affect different regions at different times:
- November-December 2024: The western part of Indonesia, including Sumatra, the southern coastal region of Java, and Kalimantan, will experience the peak of the rainy season during this period.
- January-February 2025: The eastern part of Indonesia, including Lampung, northern Java, parts of Sulawesi, Bali, NTB, NTT, and most of Papua, will see the peak of the rainy season during these months.
Comparison of Peak Rainy Season with Normal Conditions
BMKG’s "Rainy Season Forecast 2024/2025 in Indonesia" book predicts that approximately 332 out of 700 Zona Musim (ZOM) (48%) will experience a peak that aligns with normal conditions. These regions include most of Sumatra, central Java, northern Kalimantan, Timor NTT, northern Maluku, and most of Papua.
Around 246 ZOM (35%) are expected to have an earlier-than-usual peak, including parts of Sumatra, most of Java, central Kalimantan, central to northern Sulawesi, Bali, NTB, southern Maluku, Maluku’s coastal areas, western Kalimantan, and the northern part of Merauke, Papua.
Lastly, about 121 ZOM (17%) may experience a delayed peak compared to normal conditions. These regions include eastern Kalimantan’s coastal areas, parts of NTT, southern Sulawesi, central Maluku, Sorong, western Papua, and most of Papua.
La Niña Phenomenon
ENSO predictions indicate a potential La Niña event from late 2024 to March 2025. Generally, La Niña tends to bring wetter conditions to Indonesia. However, its impact can vary across different regions. La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Equatorial region are cooler than usual, potentially increasing rainfall in Indonesia if local sea temperatures are warm.
Stay informed and prepared for the upcoming peak rainy season to ensure your safety and the well-being of your community.
