Will Asean’s scramble for Russian oil fuel shift in regional alliances?

The Energy Pivot: How Southeast Asia is Navigating the Hormuz Crisis

For decades, the energy security of Southeast Asia has relied on a precarious lifeline: the Strait of Hormuz. Though, a continuing chokehold on this critical maritime corridor has forced a dramatic rethink of regional procurement strategies.

As energy prices climb and traditional supply routes tighten, governments across the region are increasingly looking toward Russian oil and gas to plug the gap. While the immediate goal is to ease fuel shortages, the long-term implications reach far beyond simple logistics.

A Critical Gap in Energy Production

The urgency of this pivot stems from a fundamental imbalance between local production and regional demand. Southeast Asia is heavily import-dependent, leaving it vulnerable to any disruption in the Middle East.

Data from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace highlights the scale of this challenge: the region produces only 2 million barrels of oil daily, yet requires 5 million barrels to meet its total energy demands.

This deficit creates a permanent state of vulnerability. When the primary artery of global oil flow—the Strait of Hormuz—becomes unreliable, the search for alternative suppliers becomes a matter of national survival rather than mere economic preference.

The Russian Lifeline and the Sanctions Puzzle

In response to these shortages, member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) have pursued separate efforts to secure fuel from Russia. This trend is evident across several nations, including:

• Indonesia
• Malaysia
• Vietnam
• The Philippines
• Myanmar

Navigating this shift has required a complex diplomatic dance. Many of these nations have utilized temporary US sanctions waivers for specific Russian oil transactions, allowing them to shore up domestic reserves even while Moscow remains under broader Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine.

From Emergency Supply to Geopolitical Influence

While the current scramble for Russian fuel is driven by economic necessity, analysts warn that the strategic fallout could be permanent. The transition from a short-term emergency supplier to a long-term energy partner provides Moscow with a significant opening.

Chester Cabalza, founder and president of the Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, suggests that this move could lead to a “reshaping of regional alliances to achieve supply chain resilience.”

Cabalza notes a high probability that Russia could leverage its role as an “energy lifeline” to secure a “currency of influence” within Asean. As the region continues to struggle with its reliance on the Gulf for over half of its oil and gas needs, the entity that provides the alternative becomes a powerful geopolitical actor.

Future Trends to Watch

Looking ahead, the region is likely to move toward more formalized energy agreements that prioritize security over cost. You can expect to see an increase in bilateral deals that bypass traditional shipping bottlenecks.

the reliance on temporary sanctions waivers may lead to more permanent shifts in how Asean nations balance their relationships between Western security partners and Eastern energy providers.

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