SAN ANTONIO — As the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff reaches its conclusion, the state’s political landscape remains defined by a high-stakes advertising war and the shadow of presidential influence. With voters heading to the polls Tuesday, candidates Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton have opted to forgo public campaign events on the final day, instead allowing their extensive media campaigns to make the closing arguments.
The runoff, which marks the end of a quest for the GOP nomination spanning more than a year, has seen advertising spending reach $109 million. While Cornyn’s camp has heavily outspent pro-Paxton groups by an almost nine-to-one margin over the past year, that financial gap has narrowed significantly in the campaign’s final week, with Cornyn’s spending now less than twice that of his opponent’s.
The intensity of the race has been further complicated by President Donald Trump’s direct involvement. On May 19, Trump endorsed Paxton, a move that included a dismissal of Cornyn. Over the weekend, Trump reaffirmed his support, disparaging Cornyn as “VERY disloyal to me” while praising Paxton’s loyalty. This follows a pattern of presidential intervention in other states, where Republican voters in Indiana and Kentucky have recently favored primary challengers over incumbents who had opposed the president’s agenda.
Cornyn, who is seeking a fifth term, has attempted to reconcile the criticism by emphasizing his legislative record, noting that 99.3% of his votes aligned with Trump. “Obviously the president is entitled to make his pick,” Cornyn told reporters on Monday, adding that “Texans are a pretty independent breed and people will be making their own choices.”
The closing days of the campaign have seen a shift in strategy. Cornyn’s network continues to focus on ethical and personal questions surrounding Paxton, arguing that such baggage could lead to a loss against Democratic nominee James Talarico in the general election. Conversely, Paxton’s campaign and supporting groups have centered their messaging on Trump’s endorsement, with the Lone Star Liberty Fund recently initiating efforts to challenge Talarico directly.
Wayne Hamilton, a former executive director of the Texas Republican Party, characterized the race as “a slug fest,” noting the aggressive nature of the competition between the campaigns and third-party groups.
Looking ahead, the outcome of Tuesday’s vote is expected to carry significant implications for the direction of the Texas Republican Party. As the state’s 18.7 million voters weigh these competing visions, the result may determine the party’s official standard-bearer for a general election that both sides acknowledge could be competitive. Should Paxton succeed, it may signal a shift in party loyalty, whereas a win for Cornyn could reinforce the position of the incumbent guard despite opposition from the party’s current leadership in Washington.
