Cardiovascular risk calculators currently used by doctors to predict heart attacks and strokes can also estimate a patient’s risk of developing certain cancers, according to a study published in the European Journal of Cancer. Researchers at University College London (UCL) found that tools like QRISK3—widely used in the UK—performed with comparable accuracy to specialized cancer risk models when applied to adults aged 40 to 84.
How Cardiovascular Models Predict Cancer Risk
The study, which analyzed data from more than five million people using the UK Biobank and general practice records, tested four established cardiovascular assessment tools: QRISK3 (UK), the Pooled Cohort Equations (US), and the SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP models (Europe). These tools calculate a 10-year risk percentage based on factors including age, body mass index (BMI), and smoking status.
According to the research, these models estimated the risk of common cancers—such as bowel, prostate, and breast cancer—as effectively as dedicated cancer risk calculators. For other malignancies, including kidney, laryngeal, and gastro-oesophageal cancers, the cardiovascular tools occasionally outperformed standard cancer-specific assessments. Dr. Sam Quill, the study’s lead author and a PhD student at the UCL Institute of Cardiovascular Science, noted that while early detection remains a priority for health systems, these findings highlight potential opportunities to prevent cancer development before it begins.
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The QRISK3 model, which is integrated into NHS systems for heart health checks, uses smoking status and blood pressure as primary indicators. Researchers noted that while high blood pressure may not cause cancer directly, it often correlates with lifestyle factors like excessive alcohol intake and physical inactivity, which are known cancer risk factors.
Clinical Implications for Preventative Medicine
In the UK, the QRISK3 tool is a cornerstone of the NHS Health Check, a free assessment offered every five years to adults aged 40 to 74. Patients identified as having a 10% or higher risk of heart disease over a decade are typically counseled on healthy living and may be offered statins or blood pressure-lowering medication.
Dr. Quill suggested that these existing clinical pathways could potentially be expanded. “Our study suggests the risk of certain cancers could be estimated at the same time,” he stated. However, he cautioned that the clinical utility of repurposing these tools must be weighed against broader public health strategies. Further research is required to determine which specific interventions would be most effective if cardiovascular tools were integrated into wider cancer prevention efforts.
Comparing Risk Assessment Tools
The research compared four distinct models to determine their versatility in clinical settings:
- QRISK3: Primarily used in the UK for cardiovascular risk assessment.
- Pooled Cohort Equations: The standard tool utilized by healthcare providers in the US.
- SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP: European models designed to calculate risk across various age groups, including older populations.
While these tools show promise, the researchers emphasized that their predictions are not perfect for either heart disease or cancer. They function as estimation models based on population-level data rather than definitive diagnostic tests.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can my heart health score predict cancer?
According to the UCL study, cardiovascular risk tools like QRISK3 have shown the ability to estimate the risk of certain cancers—such as bowel, breast, and prostate cancer—with similar accuracy to specialized cancer models.
Does high blood pressure cause cancer?
The researchers noted that high blood pressure is not necessarily a direct cause of cancer. Instead, it often serves as a marker for related lifestyle factors, such as physical inactivity and high alcohol consumption, which are linked to increased cancer risk.
Will doctors start using heart calculators for cancer screening?
While the study proves the potential for these tools, experts like Dr. Sam Quill state that more research is needed to determine the best approach for integrating these estimations into existing cancer prevention programs.
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