Alberta is facing a $9.37-billion deficit, as revealed in a budget tabled Thursday by Finance Minister Nate Horner, despite minimal cuts and record spending. Premier Danielle Smith has attributed the province’s financial difficulties, in part, to federal immigration policies, a claim made as the province prepares for a fall referendum on immigration.
Budget Details and Economic Factors
The budget document itself offers limited detail on how population growth contributes to the deficit. It characterizes Ottawa’s immigration policies as “a significant drag on the economy,” anticipating a decrease of 30,000 temporary residents in 2026, following a net gain of 21,500 in 2025. Slower population growth is expected to moderate consumer spending and demand for services.
Alberta has recently seen an influx of people from other provinces, gaining a net 179 international migrants, nearly 2,000 from Ontario, and over 1,000 each from Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Atlantic Canada. Despite this growth, the province’s financial future remains heavily reliant on oil prices, a factor outside of its control.
Immigration Referendum Proposed
Premier Smith has linked both depressed oil prices and the strain on education and health services to the influx of newcomers. She is using this argument to build support for a referendum on immigration policy. The proposed referendum questions include limiting services to Canadian citizens, permanent residents, and “Alberta-approved” immigrants, as well as requiring non-permanent residents to reside in Alberta for a year before accessing social support programs and charging fees for health and education services.
Although population growth peaked in 2024, it has also boosted personal income-tax revenue. The province has allocated $34.4-billion to healthcare and $10.8-billion to education, representing over half of its total expenses.
Uncertainty Regarding Costs
The Alberta government has not provided a comprehensive breakdown of the costs associated with non-permanent residents. Finance Minister Horner stated on Thursday that a detailed analysis is forthcoming, but currently, no specific figures are available. Last week, Premier Smith estimated costs of $500-million for K-12 education and $100-million for healthcare related to non-permanent residents, but the province has not explained how these numbers were calculated.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the size of Alberta’s current budget deficit?
The current budget deficit is $9.37-billion, as tabled by Finance Minister Nate Horner on Thursday.
What is the purpose of the proposed immigration referendum?
The referendum questions propose limiting services to Canadian citizens, permanent residents and “Alberta-approved” immigrants, and requiring non-permanent residents to live in Alberta for a year before being able to access public social-support programs. It also proposes charging non-permanent migrants fees for using the health and education systems.
What did the Calgary Chamber of Commerce president say about population growth and Alberta’s finances?
Deborah Yedlin stated that population growth is not one of the biggest strains on Alberta’s finances, adding that Alberta’s aggregate population growth over the past decade has been less than two per cent.
As Alberta navigates economic challenges and considers changes to its immigration policies, what role will population growth ultimately play in shaping the province’s financial future?
