The collapse of the Turkish economy is dire. Still better than analysts expected

According to Bloomberg, analysts expected a decline of 10.7 percent. However, according to seasonally adjusted working-day adjusted data, GDP fell by 11% compared to the previous three months, the highest since 1998.

The Turkish economy, which amounts to about $ 743 billion, or 16.4 trillion crowns, performed better than many other countries in the group of young markets. This is partly due to a combination of interest rate cuts, fiscal spending and government pressure to lend. US investment bank Goldman Sachs also noted that the restrictions Ankara imposed in March to prevent the spread of covid-19 were stricter than in the rest of the region, which includes Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.

The decline in the second quarter was mostly due to lower household consumption, which fell by 8.6 percent year on year. Exports fell by 35.3 percent and imports by 6.3 percent. Gross fixed capital formation, a measure of corporate investment that has not been increasing in the country since mid-2018, fell 6.1 percent.

The Turkish government has introduced a package of support measures worth 240 billion Turkish lira to help businesses and consumers, while state-owned banks have increased lending. At the same time, the central bank bought government bonds to get new money into the economy, and also cut interest rates several times, including an emergency cut of one percentage point in March.

After the release of coronavirus restrictions at the end of the second quarter, there were signs of an economic upswing. Industrial production rose in June for the first time since February, and economic confidence has improved in the last four months.

However, the disadvantages of the government’s efforts to revive the economy also began to manifest themselves. Along with the further decline in the lira, inflationary pressures reappeared and the central bank had to resort to a so-called secret tightening of monetary policy, raising financing costs without directly raising interest rates.

The Turkish currency has fallen nineteen percent against the dollar this year. In the third quarter, its performance against the dollar is the worst compared to other currencies in developing countries.

However, stimulus measures are unlikely to protect the economy from one of the deepest year-round declines in history. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the country’s economy could shrink by five percent. Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak is more optimistic, according to him this year’s performance will range from a decline of two percent to growth of one percent. Tera Securities economist Enver Erkan added that leading indicators confirm that the economy is in the phase of rebounding from the bottom.

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Couche-Tard among the 200 largest companies in the world

Alimentation Couche-Tard has just made its entry into the select club of the 200 largest global companies, reveals the most recent Global 500 ranking of the American magazine Forbes.

The Laval retailer climbed to 183rd among the world’s giants, just behind its Japanese rival 7-Eleven (178e place), but ahead of big names like Unilever (185e place), Goldman Sachs (202e place), LG Electronics (207e place), Pfizer (215e place), the Royal Bank of Canada (223e place) et Rio Tinto (280e place).

The classification of Forbes uses the revenues recorded by Couche-Tard during its fiscal year which ended on April 30, 2019, that is to say 59.1 billion US dollars (78.3 billion CA $). As a result of the pandemic, the company’s revenue fell 8% in 2019-2020 to reach US $ 54.1 billion (over CA $ 71.6 billion).

In seven years of presence in the Global 500 of Forbes, Couche-Tard has gained 146 places. In 2014, the company was at 329e rang.

Based on revenue, Couche-Tard is currently the third largest company in Canada, behind Toronto heavyweight Brookfield Asset Management (155e place) and Manulife (181e place).

“It is the only Canadian company to have really succeeded in international retail,” notes finance and governance expert Michel Nadeau.

He points out, however, that nearly three-quarters of Couche-Tard’s revenues come from gasoline sales, a sector set to decline with the growing popularity of electric vehicles.

In addition, several other products sold in convenience stores and gas stations are also on the decline, such as candy, cigarettes and soft drinks.

“This is one of the enormous challenges facing Couche-Tard: how to reinvent yourself? Said Mr. Nadeau.

In Norway, where half of all new vehicles sold are electric, Couche-Tard promotes quality baked goods to generate sales while customers wait to charge their cars.

Michel Nadeau is also worried about the Quebec presence within the company. CEO since 2014, American Brian Hannasch lives in Indiana and spends relatively little time at the head office in Laval.

In fact, only one of the company’s eight most senior executives – CFO Claude Tessier – lives in Quebec.

In addition, the multiple voting shares that give control of Couche-Tard to its four founders will expire at the end of next year. The company will then become more vulnerable to a hostile takeover.

“The board of directors must ensure that Couche-Tard does not lose its Quebec roots,” says Mr. Nadeau.

Note that Seven & I (owner of 7-Eleven) has just beaten the pawn at Couche-Tard for the acquisition of the American chain Speedway, a transaction of US $ 21 billion (over CA $ 27.8 billion) that will consolidate its status as a world leader in the sector.

Analysts believe, however, that Couche-Tard has done well to pass its turn, deeming the price too high.

In interview with Forbes, Mr. Hannasch confided that Couche-Tard relies in particular on cannabis to fuel its future growth. The company is already a shareholder of a Canadian retailer active in the sector, Fire & Flower.

“One day it will be legalized in most of the United States,” he argued.

The executive also revealed that Couche-Tard is currently testing “dynamic pricing,” which involves adjusting the prices of certain products based on real-time demand in each store.

“It’s easier to ask for $ 1.69 for a Pepsi in any store,” Hannasch said. But if you take a few pennies here, a few pennies there, it adds up quickly when you have 10,000 establishments. ”

Pays Sector Annual income Profits Employees
1. Walmart United States Retail business 524 G$ US 14,9 G$ US 2 200 000
2. Sinopec China Hydrocarbons 407 G$ US 6,8 G$ US 583 000
3. State Grid China Electricity 384 G$ US 8,0 G$ US 908 000
4. China National Petroleum China Oil and gas 379 G$ US 4,4 G$ US 1 344 000
5. Royal Dutch Shell Netherlands / United Kingdom Oil and gas 352 G$ US 15,8 G$ US 83 000
6. Saudi Aramco Saudi Arabia Oil and gas 330 G$ US 88,2 G$ US 79 000
7. Volkswagen Germany Automobile 283 G$ US 15,5 G$ US 671 000
8. BP United Kingdom Oil and gas 283 G$ US 4,0 G$ US 73 000
9. Amazon United States Online business 281 G$ US 11,6 G$ US 798 000
10. Toyota Motor Japan Automobile 275 G$ US 19,1 G$ US 360 000

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Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan dissuade customers to buy bitcoin

Large banks JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs discourage their customers from investing in cryptocurrency, said Adam Pokornitsky, partner in digital asset management company Digital Asset Investment Management.

One of Pokornitsky’s clients was going to buy bitcoin, but after talking with consultants from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, he stated that he was no longer interested in the purchase.

The client did not tell Pokornitsky what exactly he had heard from representatives of financial giants, but asked to list the benefits of buying bitcoin now.

Pokornitsky noted that the purchase and storage of Bitcoin demonstrated profitability for 3853 days out of all 4134 days, that is, for more than 93% of the time. In addition, the value of the first cryptocurrency is not tied to the dollar, and its price is set solely on the basis of supply and demand.

“Based on modern portfolio theory and considering an optimal portfolio, any portfolio with many assets, including at least 1-10% of bitcoin, showed better absolute risk-adjusted return than portfolios without it,” He wrote.

Recall that JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have long been exploring the possibilities of working in the cryptocurrency space themselves. Last last year reportedthat he intends to “move further than ever” in working with digital assets.

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Million dollar bonuses for Goldman bankers drive shareholder advisors onto the barricades

Boston, New York The influential voting rights advisor ISS stands against the millions of bonuses for Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon and other top managers of the bank. Goldman Sachs ISS increased the bonus for CEO Solomon sharply, although some important key figures would have deteriorated in 2019 compared to the previous year, ISS criticized in a Reuters report on the night of Friday.

Solomon earned nearly $ 25 million in 2019. ISS recommended that shareholders vote against the salary package at the Annual General Meeting next Thursday. The shareholders’ vote is only of an advisory nature and is therefore not binding. Many funds and large investors follow the recommendations of voting rights advisers such as ISS and Glass Lewis.

Solomon succeeded Lloyd Blankfein at the top of Goldman Sachs in October 2018 and was able to look forward to a substantial salary increase in 2019. He collected a total of $ 24.7 million, of which 7.65 million were bonus payments. Solomon thus received 19 percent more money than in the previous year, although the investment bank’s profit plummeted 19 percent to $ 8.47 billion.

However, the highest-paid US banker remained long-time JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon in 2019, who received $ 31.5 million after a record profit from the bank – 1.6 percent more than in the previous year.

A Goldman Sachs spokesman defended the salaries for top managers around Solomon. Goldman rewards long-term growth and does not place undue emphasis on short-term results. Income for 2019 reflected the significant long-term success of the top management.

More: How the corona crisis will weigh on US banks’ businesses.

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Ten major banks are accused of manipulation of the corporate bond market

Deutsche Bank

The German money house is accused of years of manipulation.


(Photo: Reuters)

new York A US lawsuit accuses ten of the world’s largest banks of manipulating the corporate bond market. According to this, the money houses – including Deutsche Bank – have been asking for high prices for almost 14 years, as can be seen from court documents on Tuesday. As a result, investors were financially damaged.

The accused financial institutions include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of AmericaBarclays Citigroup, Credit SuisseDeutsche Bank Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland and Wells Fargo. Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo declined to comment.

More: Ex-top manager of Deutsche Bank sentenced to prison.

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In the corona crisis, trading is a blessing for Deutsche Bank

Christian Sewing

Analysts fear that the corona crisis will spoil the Deutsche Bank boss’s profit targets.


(Photo: Reuters)

Frankfurt The promise is still there: Christian Sewing actually wants to deliver a small operating profit this year. He put a “black zero” Deutsche Bank boss prospects for investors for 2020 – but that was long before the outbreak of the corona crisis.

According to analysts, this goal has long been a waste. On average, the experts expect a loss before taxes of EUR 1.9 billion for 2020, according to a compilation that the bank has published on its website. The net forecasted minus amounts to over two billion euros.

On April 29, investors will get the first important clues as to how bad 2020 will really be for Deutsche Bank. Then the largest domestic bank presents its first quarter results, usually the strongest in banking. On average, analysts anticipate a comparatively small loss of EUR 35 million for the first three months of this year. However, the experts predict a net loss of 437 million euros. For comparison: In the previous year, the bank still had a bottom line profit of 97 million euros.

The quarterly figures of the large US banks have shown how painful the consequences of the crisis can be. For industry leader JP Morgan, earnings fell in the first three months compared to the previous year by around two thirds to at least $ 2.9 billion. The main reason for the slump was the drastically higher provision for impending credit losses. $ 6.8 billion JP Morgan for that back. With the competitor Wells Fargo there were still 3.2 billion.

Opportunities from the crisis

“Because of the poor profitability, the major German banks cannot afford provisions of this size,” warns a top banker. But that may not be necessary. Stefan Hoops, head of corporate business at Deutsche Bank, hopes that Europe’s banks will come through the corona crisis without major injuries. He also blames structural differences between the United States and Europe for this.

For example, European financial institutions are much less involved in the credit card business, which creates high provisions at the US institutions. For Hoops area, the analysts predict a pre-tax profit of 195 million euros for the first quarter. For the retail customer bank, the earnings forecast is 117 million euros and for asset management 125 million euros.

The area that Sewing cut back significantly in the course of the new strategy has proven to be an opportunity for Deutsche Bank: trading, because the dramatic price fluctuations ensure brisk operation in the trading rooms. As part of the new strategy, Deutsche Bank has largely stepped out of its equity business with large customers.

However, the bank is still one of the market leaders in the business of bonds, foreign exchange and derivatives, their traditional strength. Business with the major investment banks has recently been excellent, especially in currencies. In the Citigroup bond, currency and commodity trading revenues rose 39 percent in the first quarter Goldman Sachs by 33 percent. But there has also been a real boom in the placement of corporate bonds in recent weeks.

In retail, the analysts expect revenues of 1.6 billion euros for the first quarter. For the entire investment bank, the experts expect revenues of 1.9 billion euros and a profit before taxes of 225 million euros after 247 million in the previous year. The investment bank is expected to make the largest contribution to Deutsche Bank’s profit – and to become a stabilizing anchor in the pandemic.

More: In the corona crisis, the KfW boss becomes Germany’s most important banker

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Encouraging news supports US stock markets – Dow closes in plus

Dusseldorf The prospect of an end to the economic coma to combat the corona virus gives US investors hope at the end of the week. The aircraft manufacturer’s announcement BoeingStarting production again and President Donald Trump’s plans to gradually start the economy aroused the buying mood.

The Dow Jones gained 3.0 percent to 24,242 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq advanced 1.4 percent to 8,650 jobs and the broad S&P 500 rose 2.7 percent to 2,875 points. Over the course of the week, the Dow rose 2.2 percent, the S&P by three and the Nasdaq 6.1 percent. Had in Europe the Dax previously 3.1 percent and the EuroStoxx50 2.4 percent.

“The news of a possible remedy on the same day that Trump presented its opening plans gave investors reason to be optimistic that something like normal will return sometime soon,” said Joshua Mahony, market analyst at broker house IG.

US President Donald Trump presented his exit strategy from the corona crisis on Thursday. The White House plan provides for specific parameters according to which individual states can gradually loosen their restrictions. Germany would also benefit from a plan with clearly defined milestones, comments Handelsblatt author Christian Rickens.

Hope for corona drug

The biggest issue on the markets today, however, was hope for one Corona drugthat the US pharmaceutical company Gilead is currently testing. In a study by the University Clinic in Chicago, remdesivir, which was originally developed against Ebola, led to a rapid reduction in fever and a reduction in the symptoms of the lung disease, so that almost all patients could be discharged in less than a week.

At the end of the month, the group plans to present more comprehensive results from its phase 3 study. It was still too early to draw general conclusions from the success of the treatment. The pharmaceutical company’s papers grew by around eight percent.

However, they act as mood dampers Economic data from China: Economic growth there shrank by 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in the previous year. Even if China is slowly starting up its economy again after the pandemic, the country will probably not be able to lead the rest of the world economy to recovery, China correspondent Dana Heide analyzes.

The US oil prices broke in on Friday. The price of the US variety WTI temporarily lost almost twelve percent to $ 17.50 a barrel and was thus as low as it was last more than 18 years ago. US inventories were rapidly filling as refineries demand less and less crude oil, says Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of the oil business at Rystad brokerage. Nothing will change for the time being despite the planned relaxation of the virus restrictions.

Focus on individual values

Gilead: The new hope for corona therapy rose on Friday: the shares closed 9.7 percent higher.

Boeing: After a drop of eight percent on Thursday, Boeing papers were also among the winners on Friday. They gained 14.7 percent. Of the airbus-Rivale announced that it would start production again next week.

Titles like were on the sales list Amazon, Netflix or Blue apron with a minus of up to 3.7 percent: The online retailer, the streaming service and the cookbox provider had recently benefited from the exit restrictions. The prospect of easing now moved investors to take profits. Amazon and Netflix both climbed to an all-time high on Thursday.

Apple: Apple was one of the losers with a drop of almost 1.4 percent. The iPhone manufacturer’s share was downgraded by Goldman Sachs analysts from “neutral” to “sell”. The group is likely to suffer primarily from the lower demand for iPhones. The stock loses more than two percent.

With agency material.

More: Here you can find out how the German stock market developed on Friday.

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US investors have hope – Dow is up

Wall Street

The White House’s clear exit strategy creates a better mood on Wall Street.

(Photo: AP)

Dusseldorf The US markets started trading significantly more on Friday, but have since moved more sideways. The Dow Jones index of standard values ​​is 1.64 percent firmer at 24,006 points. At the start of trading, it was still up over 2.3 percent.

The broader S&P 500 is listed at 1.6 percent on 2851 points. Since its low in March, the S&P has made up about 30 percent of the ground. The index of the technology exchange Nasdaq slightly slightly in the minus – it started the trading day with a plus of 1.5 percent.

“The news of a possible remedy on the same day that Trump presented his opening plans gives reason to be optimistic that something like normal will return sometime soon,” said Joshua Mahony, market analyst at broker house IG.

US President Donald Trump presented his exit strategy from the corona crisis on Thursday. The White House plan provides for specific parameters according to which individual states can gradually loosen their restrictions. Germany would also benefit from a plan with clearly defined milestones, comments Handelsblatt author Christian Rickens.

Hope for corona drug

The biggest issue on the markets today, however, is hope for one Corona drugthat the US pharmaceutical company Gilead is currently testing. In a study by the University Clinic in Chicago, remdesivir, which was originally developed against Ebola, led to a rapid reduction in fever and a reduction in the symptoms of the lung disease, so that almost all patients could be discharged in less than a week.

At the end of the month, the group plans to present more comprehensive results from its phase 3 study. It was still too early to draw general conclusions from the success of the treatment. The pharmaceutical company’s papers grew by around eight percent.

However, they act as mood dampers Economic data from China: Economic growth there shrank by 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in the previous year. Even if China is slowly starting up its economy again after the pandemic, the country will probably not be able to lead the rest of the world economy to recovery, China correspondent Dana Heide analyzes.

The US oil prices broke in on Friday. The price of the US variety WTI temporarily lost almost twelve percent to $ 17.50 a barrel and was thus as low as it was last more than 18 years ago. US inventories were rapidly filling as refineries demand less and less crude oil, says Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of the oil business at Rystad brokerage. Nothing will change for the time being despite the planned relaxation of the virus restrictions.

Focus on individual values

Gilead: The new hope for corona therapy increased on Friday: The papers shot up about eight percent.

Procter + Gamble: The US consumer goods giant has seen the corona pandemic grow its business. The group benefited particularly from strong inventory purchases in the drugstore sector. In the three months to the end of March, revenues increased five percent year-on-year to $ 17.2 billion, the company said on Friday. Profits rose seven percent to $ 3.0 billion. The share was up 1.3 percent on Friday evening.

Boeing: The aircraft manufacturer plans to start production again on Monday. Because of the corona pandemic, production stopped there for three weeks. At the start of trading, the share rose by more than 13 percent.

Apple: Goldman Sachs analysts downgraded iPhone manufacturer’s stock from “neutral” to “sell”. Apple is likely to suffer primarily from the lower demand for iPhones. The stock loses more than two percent.

With agency material.

More: Here you can find out how the German stock market developed on Friday.

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Wall Street opened in plus

Wall Street

The White House’s clear exit strategy creates a better mood on Wall Street.

(Photo: AP)

Dusseldorf The US markets started trading significantly more on Friday. The Dow Jones index of standard values ​​opened 2.3 percent firmer at 24,080 points.

The broader S&P 500 gained 2.1 percent to 2,857 points. The Nasdaq technology exchange index gained 1.5 percent to 8658 points.

“The news of a possible remedy on the same day that Trump presented his opening plans gives reason to be optimistic that something like normal will return sometime soon,” said Joshua Mahony, market analyst at broker house IG.

US President Donald Trump may also have caused optimism. He presented his exit strategy from the corona crisis on Thursday. The White House plan provides for specific parameters according to which individual states can gradually loosen their restrictions. Germany would also benefit from a plan with clearly defined milestones, comments Handelsblatt author Christian Rickens.

Hope for corona drug

The biggest issue on the markets today is the hope of a Corona drugthat the US pharmaceutical company Gilead is currently testing. In a study by the University Clinic in Chicago, remdesivir, which was originally developed against Ebola, led to a rapid reduction in fever and a reduction in the symptoms of the lung disease, so that almost all patients could be discharged in less than a week.

At the end of the month, the group plans to present more comprehensive results from its phase 3 study. It was still too early to draw general conclusions from the success of the treatment.

However, they act as mood dampers Economic data from China: Economic growth there shrank by 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in the previous year. Even if China is slowly starting up its economy again after the pandemic, the country will probably not be able to lead the rest of the world economy to recovery, China correspondent Dana Heide analyzes.

The US oil prices broke in on Friday. The price of the US variety WTI temporarily lost almost twelve percent to $ 17.50 a barrel and was thus as low as it was last more than 18 years ago. US inventories were rapidly filling as refineries demand less and less crude oil, says Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of the oil business at Rystad brokerage. Nothing will change for the time being despite the planned relaxation of the virus restrictions.

Focus on individual values

Gilead: The new hope for corona therapy increased vigorously on Friday: The papers shot up to $ 85.17, or just under twelve percent, upwards.

Procter + Gamble: The US consumer goods giant has seen the corona pandemic grow its business. The group benefited particularly from strong inventory purchases in the drugstore sector. In the three months to the end of March, revenues increased five percent year-on-year to $ 17.2 billion, the company said on Friday. Profits climbed seven percent to $ 3.0 billion. The share was up one percent on Friday afternoon.

Boeing: The aircraft manufacturer plans to start production again on Monday. Because of the corona pandemic, production stopped there for three weeks. At the start of trading, the share rose by more than 10 percent.

Apple: Goldman-Sachs analysts downgraded the iPhone manufacturer’s stock from “neutral” to “sell”. Apple is likely to suffer primarily from the lower demand for iPhones. The stock loses more than one percent.

With agency material.

More: Here you can find out how the German stock market developed on Friday.

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Alternative Investments: Return in Corona Times: How to Make Money Now

Fluctuations on the stock exchanges are extreme due to the Covid 19 pandemic. But there is a way out: alternative investments. The Handelsblatt presents them. .