Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has warned that Australia is “utterly defenceless” against direct missile strikes and faces a potential overnight collapse of its fuel supplies and export income if a war erupts over Taiwan. Writing in a newsletter published this month, the current Liberal Party president questioned whether the nation is prepared for a conflict that former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd previously estimated has a one-in-three chance of happening within three years.
Mr. Abbott asserted that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would almost certainly result in the cessation of all imports and exports between Australia and China. He warned that this would lead to the immediate drying up of export income and fuel supplies, noting that Australia currently possesses “almost no air defences whatsoever” to protect against potential missile strikes.
Facing Catastrophic Combat Losses and Trade Reliance on China
Beyond immediate strikes, Mr. Abbott stated that joining American efforts to defend Taiwan could result in combat losses on a scale "unseen since World War Two." This assessment is supported by the fact that China currently accounts for approximately 30 per cent of Australian exports and 26 per cent of its imports.
Michael Shoebridge, Director of Strategic Analysis Australia, agreed with the core of Mr. Abbott’s assessment, citing a “bipartisan failure” regarding economic and military security. Mr. Shoebridge described the national approach as “dangerously stupid,” arguing that Australia’s policy of growing economic dependence on China clashes with Beijing’s goal of making other nations more dependent on it while reducing its own reliance on them.
Confronting Youth Reluctance and Strategic Drift in National Defense
Mr. Abbott also highlighted a psychological vulnerability among the youth, claiming that “brainwashed” young Australians may not be ready for such a struggle. He cited opinion polls suggesting roughly half of young Australians do not believe the country is worth defending and would not fight if attacked, a sentiment he attributed to a generation believing Australia exists on stolen land.
He blamed “successive governments” for a decade of “strategic drift,” societal fragmentation, and economic stagnation. Mr. Abbott argued that “weakness is provocative” and urged the nation to prepare militarily, economically, and psychologically to ensure the price of aggression remains too high for adversaries.
Reliance on United States Support
While Mr. Abbott discussed joining American actions, Mr. Shoebridge argued that relying on the US military for defence is unwise. Pointing to erratic global moves and an inability to supply sufficient munitions for its own conflict against Iran, Mr. Shoebridge called the idea that the US could provide the missiles and munitions required by the Australian Defence Force “insane.”
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