The authors of the study believe that government measures and the responsibility of citizens saved about 80 thousand lives.
Photo: Evgenia Novozhenina / Reuters
Experts at the Higher School of Economics conducted a study that suggested how many people could die (and how many lives were theoretically saved) as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in Russia.
In the article “How many COVID-19 deaths could Russian society escape”, the authors concluded that if the authorities and the population ignored the epidemic and didn’t take the necessary measures, 3.8 million people could potentially become victims of the pandemic. The authors themselves call this estimate overvalued. It could be real if people lost the ability to learn and rationally process information. The authors came to this indicator using a logistic curve, which completely did not take into account the influence of the healthcare system on the spread of the virus.
At the same time, the authors make a reservation that they proceeded in this model from the fact that the pace of the epidemic’s development all the time remains at the same level as in the first 20 days.
There is another epidemiological (SEIR) model, which directly takes into account the capacity of the healthcare system (the number of accessible hospital beds, mechanical ventilation devices). In accordance with it, if the number of sick at the same time exceeds the capacity of the system, then the number of deaths will increase at an accelerated pace.
With this calculation, the authors indicate that in the case of the introduction of minimal restrictions in Russia (as, for example, in Brazil), the number of victims could be more than 80 thousand people. According to the HSE, these measures were helped by measures taken by the government and responsible behavior of citizens who went to minimize contacts and self-isolation, as well as enterprises that switched to work remotely.
In the United States, designer Anatoly Daron died due to an exacerbation of a chronic disease. He created engines for rockets that delivered the first satellite and the first cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin to space. A message about this is posted on the website of NPO Energomash (Roscosmos enterprise).
“On June 24, 2020, an outstanding scientist, designer, who worked for many years at NPO Energomash, Anatoly Davidovich Daron, passed away,” the report said.
Daron was born in 1926 in Odessa, graduated from the Moscow Aviation Institute. From 1948 to 1998, he worked at Energomash.
He was a leading designer in the development of the RD-107 and RD-108 liquid-propellant rocket engines for the R-7 rocket family. With the help of this engine and its modifications, an artificial satellite and a spacecraft with a man on board were first launched into space from Earth. The development was also used in flights of automatic stations to the Moon, Venus and Mars. Now, the RD-107 and RD-108 liquid-propellant rocket engines provide for the implementation of the domestic manned flight program.
In 1989, Daron received the honorary title of Honored Designer of the RSFSR, in addition, he was awarded the Orders of Lenin, Friendship, and the Red Banner of Labor.
The head of Sberbank German Gref said that he did not consider it possible to return to the government. According to him, after ten years, he does not see himself in Sberbank
Herman Gref
(Photo: Eugene Razumny / Vedomosti / TASS)
Answering a question from the TASS agency, how does he see his worst nightmare, Gref replied: “Honestly? I am returning to the government. ” According to him, after ten years, he does not intend to work either in Sberbank, or in any other large company.
“In addition to working at the bank, there was another happy period in my life – teaching at the university. Maybe I’ll be back in the field of education. I’m interested in technology, venture capital investments, ”said Gref.
Commenting on the work of the cabinet in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, Gref compared it with what happened in 1998. “The government cannot be envied, if only for the reason that in the second week of its existence, he got the coronavirus. One can only compare this with the default of 1998, which occurred shortly after the arrival of Sergei Kiriyenko in the White House, ”said the head of Sberbank.
Gref predicted a sharp ruble appreciation by the end of the year
According to Gref, in the midst of quarantine, the Cabinet of Ministers “worked, without exaggeration, 20 hours a day” in search of solutions to the situation.
“No one expected such stress. The worst thing at that moment is inaction. He was absent. A series of actions may have turned out to be vain and incorrect, as we understand with a hind mind, but then it seemed that these were absolutely correct reactions, ”Gref said.
He appreciated the head of Sberbank and the actions of the Central Bank, which, according to him, “worked very well.” “The necessary steps were taken in time, which allowed us to untie our hands a bit and support our customers. We carried out a gigantic restructuring as soon as possible, renewed as many loans in a week as in the whole of 2019 – more than a trillion rubles for legal entities, ”Gref said.
In 2000-2007, German Gref headed the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. Prior to that, he worked in various positions in the government of the country and the administration of St. Petersburg.
Cloving hospital on the basis of the Medical Scientific and Educational Center (ISSC) Moscow State University named after M.V.Lomonosov took the first patients on April 21 and completed his work on June 13. It turned out that it was possible to achieve the best treatment results for COVID-19 in Moscow. Over the entire period, 4 patients died, and among severe patients who got mechanical ventilation, the mortality rate was less than 14% (for comparison, the average for the city and the world was up to 70 – 80%). Eighteen doctors out of 220 employees of the hospital were infected with coronavirus, there were no deaths among the medical staff.
What approaches were used at the University Hospital of Moscow State University to achieve such results? We continue the conversation with the head. Department of Therapy, Faculty of Fundamental Medicine, Moscow State University, Head of the Department of Age-Associated Diseases, Medical Scientific and Educational Center, Doctor of Medical Sciences, Cardiologist Yana Orlova.
MEDICINE FOR COUGH FOR 80 RUBLES
– Most of those who are ill or are afraid to get sick are worried about fibrotic changes in their lungs. They say that you have developed special therapy that can reduce the risk of developing fibrosis. Is it possible?!
– Yes, we launched an appropriate clinical study. There are no final results yet, but we have developed clinical practice.
“What did you do to save the lungs?”
– We used a combination of bromhexine and spironolactone (both are long-known very cheap drugs. – Ed.). Bromhexine is an expectorant that has been prescribed to patients with pneumonia and cough for many years. At the same time, experimental data showed that this drug can block a specific enzyme and impede the penetration of coronavirus into cells. True, it was on this effect that we counted to a lesser extent in inpatients, since such an effect is important mainly in the early stages of the disease. But the expectorant effect of bromhexine really helps patients with COVID. I heard that our colleagues in Peter launched a study of bromhexine for prophylactic purposes. We will wait for the results.
Coronavirus infected 18 doctors from 220 employees of the hospital, there were no deaths among the medical staffPhoto: Ivan MAKEEV
FIBROSIS OBSTACLE
– The second drug – spironolactone – is traditionally widely used in cardiology for the treatment of heart failure, severe hypertension. It has a small diuretic, magnesium and potassium-preserving effect, continues Yana. Orlova. – It has several mechanisms through which it can be useful in coronavirus infection.
Firstly, a mechanism that prevents the development of fibrosis in general in the body. There are works that, in particular, show that spironolactone reduces fibrosis in the heart. At the same time, it is known that the tendency to fibrosis is not local, but systemic – where there is more inflammation, there will certainly be fibrosis. And we see, of course, fibrotic changes in the “covide” in our patients. Therefore, we prescribed spironolactone as a drug for the prevention of this process.
Secondly, this drug blocks sex hormone receptors, in particular testosterone. Some published studies suggest that “high-testosterone” men suffer from “covid” more often and develop more severe fibrotic changes. Therefore, blocking these receptors for several weeks during COVID treatment may be useful in reducing the severity of complications. We are not talking about a longer intake, since male patients are unlikely to agree with a decrease in testosterone levels in the long term.
And perhaps the most important point. In almost all of our patients, we observed hypokalemia (a decrease in potassium levels. – Ed.). With coronavirus infection, potassium is intensely excreted from the body, and scientific articles even suggest that hypokalemia serves as the trigger for a cytokine storm. So spironolactone has a real chance to reduce the risk of this dangerous complication. But the main thing, in my opinion, is that lowering the level of potassium in the body is extremely harmful to the heart and triggers life-threatening rhythm disturbances, increasing the risk of sudden death. We, like all others, replenished potassium with droppers, but it was more effective to retain it in the body with the help of spironolactone.
Men certainly get worse than women; the elderly are heavier than the young; overweight people are heavier than overweight patientsPhoto: Ivan MAKEEV
WHEN PRESCRIBED PATIENTS
– Yana Arturovna, how many patients did you have on average?
– About 10 – 14 days. But someone and 50 days.
– Have you noticed signs by which it can be assumed that the disease in the person brought is likely to go the hard way?
– Such studies were carried out in the world, our clinical practice confirmed them. Men certainly get worse than women; the elderly are heavier than the young; overweight people are heavier than overweight patients. Men with a classic male type of baldness, a lot of facial hair, we can say brutal men get sick harder.
– Under what conditions did you discharge patients?
– We acted as close as possible to the recommendations Ministry of Health: so that the temperature for three days was not higher than 37.5 degrees; so that C-reactive protein (an indicator of inflammation) is lower than 10 mg / l, and saturation, that is, the level of oxygen in the blood, is higher than 96%.
“HEAD OF EPIDEMIOLOGY DEPARTMENT OF ITSELF WORKED AT SANPROPUSNIK”
– How often do you get sick doctors and nurses?
– In the first month no one got sick at all. We have a very powerful epidemiological service. The head of the sanitary-epidemiological department, a senior researcher, correctly organized the whole process, and for the first two weeks she personally worked in the sanitary inspection room at the exit from the “red zone” and helped doctors and nurses who were exhausted after the shift safely remove protective clothing.
Then both people’s fatigue and viral load accumulated. By the middle of the second month, sick people began to appear. There were no seriously ill patients. We treated part of the staff in our observation, part of it was treated at home. In total, 18 people were infected from the medical staff (less than 10%).
– Doctors take something for prevention? Vitamins C, D, Zinc?
– I saw the recommendations of American nutritionists, they speak out positively about taking zinc, melatonin and vitamin C. There were somewhat conflicting data on vitamin D. But we did not give any such recommendations to our employees. We have all the prevention was associated with minimizing contacts and other measures of epidemiological safety.
Physicians are the heroes of our time.“If you think that you are special and that a pandemic will not affect you, you are deeply mistaken,” listen to what the doctors who are fighting with coronavirus say
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A unique experimental model of the Kalashnikov light machine gun (RPK) was developed in the Soviet Union. Changes made to the design of weapons made it possible to increase accuracy and accuracy of shooting, however, they did not go into mass production for reasons currently unknown.
This was reported in a fresh video published by the Kalashnikov channel. The most notable innovation was the redesigned bipod. The axis of their rotation is located above the bore, because of which the latter hangs on the bipod.
“If the support is at an angle, not strictly horizontally with respect to the firing plane, then the machine itself is centered under these bipods, assuming the optimal position,” explained Ruslan Chumak, head of the funds department of the Military History Museum of Artillery.
Also in the experimental model of the PKK was provided a folding shoulder, designed for the most uniform position of the butt relative to the shoulder of the shooter. And the fore-end is made absolutely smooth, without the corporate ledge, which is usually found on classic models of Kalashnikov assault rifles and machine guns.
Help “WG”
A Kalashnikov light machine gun of 7.62 mm caliber was adopted in 1961. The mass of weapons without a magazine is 5 kilograms, length – 1040 millimeters, barrel length – 591. Food is possible both from ordinary stores of a Kalashnikov assault rifle, and stores with increased capacity (40 rounds), or from drum stores (75 rounds).
The founder of companies SpaceX and Tesla Elon Musk called the “copycat” the CEO Amazon Jeff Bezos for the acquisition of the company Zoox developing unmanned vehicles. This Musk wrote on Twitter.
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Deputy General Director of “Mail of Russia” Nikolay Podguzov will be headed by the Eurasian development Bank (EDB)
The new Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian development Bank (EDB) will be the Deputy General Director of “Mail of Russia” Nikolay Podguzov. This is stated in the message published on the government website.
“The Finance Ministry will submit the candidacy of the first Deputy General Director, Director for strategic development of “Mail of Russia” for appointment to the post of Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian development Bank (EDB)”, — stated in the message. The corresponding order was signed by the head of the government Mikhail Mishustin.
The issue of election of Chairman of the Board EDB scheduled for consideration at a meeting of the Board of the Bank on 30 June.
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Candidate Belianinov instructed to make Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. In July 2016, Belyaninov has resigned from the post of head FTS — once the investigators involved in the case about the smuggling of alcohol found in his home to 9.5 million rubles, $390 thousand and €350 thousand Belyaninov He then stated that he found the money are private savings. July 28, Medvedev signed a decree about the dismissal of Belyaninov as head of the FCS and the appointment of Vladimir Bulavin.
