2024 Precinct Data Analysis: Demographic Trends and Electoral Insights – Archyde

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Editing by Wilson Andrews, Lindsey Rogers Cook, William P. Davis, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski and Allison McCartney.
Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press. The Times publishes its own estimates for each candidate’s share of the final vote and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials.
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Methodology: Precinct data by demographic group was last updated March 6, 2024 at 2:36 a.m. E.T. Lower-income areas are precincts where the median household income is in the bottom 25 percent in each state; higher-income areas are precincts where the median household income is in the top 25 percent. Areas with fewer college graduates are precincts where the share of college graduates falls within the bottom 25 percent in each state. Areas with more college graduates are precincts where the share of college graduates falls within the top 25 percent in each state. The classification of areas as urban, rural or suburban is derived from research by Jed Kolko. Strong Biden areas are precincts where President Biden received more than 60 percent of the two-party vote in the 2020 presidential election. Strong Trump areas are precincts where former President Donald J. Trump received more than 60 percent of the two-party vote in the 2020 presidential election.
2024-03-06 18:23:00
Produced by Leanne Abraham, Michael Andre, Camille Baker, Neil Berg, Michael Beswetherick, Matthew Bloch, Irineo Cabreros, Nate Cohn, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Leo Dominguez, Andrew Fischer, Martín González Gómez, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Elena Shao, Charlie Smart, Urvashi Uberoy, Isaac White, Ashley Wu and Christine Zhang. Additional reporting by Patrick Hays; production by Amanda Cordero and Jessica White.

Precinct sources: Minnesota Secretary of State; North Carolina State Board of Elections; Oklahoma State Election Board; Virginia Department of Elections; L2; U.S. Census Bureau
The analysis of vote margin by demographic category is based solely on precincts that have completed reporting for all major vote types (e.g., absentee, early, Election Day). In North Carolina and Virginia, not all counties reported complete data at the precinct level.
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