ANDREI KUZITŠKIN ⟩ There are many dead ends, but there is a way out

On the eve of 2023, I predicted the victory of the Reform Party in the parliamentary elections and the inevitable difficulties resulting from the economic crisis and the transition to the Estonian language of instruction in all schools. He came true. The forecast of a worsening of the situation of immigrants was also confirmed. But fears of Russian military provocations on the Estonian border did not come true. Speaking of Russia, a year ago I wrote: «The economic crisis is worsening, but it will not reach catastrophic proportions. The repressive nature of the State is strengthened, the persecution of dissidents becomes massive.” The forecast was met 101%. But I will not boast of my fortune-telling skills, but I will try to briefly summarize the results of 2023 that I did not predict.

First, the Ukrainian Zugzwang. Unfortunately, no one was prepared for the long war in Ukraine. The West has run out of ammunition, money and the desire to invest more and more material resources in the victory of Ukraine. Security has a price. However, the costs of the Ukrainian project proved too high to maintain the current level of support for Ukraine in European society. The victory of anti-Ukrainian right-wing populists in the elections in Slovakia and the Netherlands demonstrated this convincingly. Ukraine itself is tired of the war: the failure of the counteroffensive, the increase in escapes from mobilization, the conflicts between the ruling elites, the problems of corruption and the drop in the population’s standard of living to a critical level paralyze the desire to WIN.

2024-01-03 11:00:00
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