More and more experts are paying attention to the disappearance of Valery Gerassimov, chief of the Russian General Staff. The last time the general appeared in public was December 29, exactly one month ago.
Although rumors about Gerassimov’s death are spreading on social media, experts express themselves rather moderately, writes the Finnish magazine Iltalehti.
For example, Norwegian foreign policy, security and defense expert Jacob Kaarsbo commented on Gerassimov’s disappearance to the Norwegian newspaper VG. According to Kaarsbo it is difficult to say anything with absolute certainty on this topic.
“The attack in early January speaks in favor of his death [okupeeritud] Against the Crimea, where he was. On the other hand, there were rumors about the death of several senior Russian officials, information that later turned out to be false,” Kaarsbo said.
In early January, an unfounded rumor spread on social media that Ukraine had managed to kill Gerassimov during an attack on Sevastopol.
Kaarsbo also recalls that disappearances are nothing new for Gerassimov. For example, a Russian general disappeared for weeks after the armed rebellion started by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin last summer solstice.
There had already been rumors about Gerassimov’s death. Ukrainian intelligence said in March 2022 that Gerassimov was killed in an attack by Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv, Iltalehti writes.
However, some experts believe that Gerassimov’s prolonged disappearance may mean that he is actually dead.
“I have come to believe that General Gerassimov may be dead,” Jan Kallberg, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis, wrote on social media.
Kallberg, who previously worked as a professor at the US Military Academy at West Point, urged watching what Russian authorities will write in the official announcement about Gerassimov’s death, if it happens at some point.
“If the Russians say he died for health reasons, then the Ukrainians killed him. If the Russians say the Ukrainians killed him, then the Kremlin killed him. That’s how Russian lies work,” Kallberg says.
However, in another social media post, Kallberg writes that Gerassimov may have ended up in hospital. The analyst added that Russia would have already blamed Ukraine for Gerassimov’s death if he had died.
Russian authorities have so far not commented on Gerassimov’s disappearance. For example, foreign and security policy expert Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet, who served for more than 30 years in military intelligence of the US Armed Forces, paid attention to this.
“Gerasimov’s continued absence from the public eye and [Kremli] the radio silence on his condition is interesting. It is strange that no explanation was given about Gerassimov’s condition,” experts say in an article published two weeks ago in the Ukrainian newspaper Kyiv Post.
However, Toth and Sweet do not believe Gerassimov is dead. They cited, among other things, the statement of former deputy head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Ihor Romanenko that rumors about Gerassimov’s death should not be believed.
2024-01-29 14:58:00
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