It would be wise for Estonia to quickly make decisions on the mechanization of the division’s artillery and 120 mm mortar batteries, because we would achieve the result only after four or five years, writes Leo Kunnas.
If current plans for the development of national military defense are realized, Estonia will receive 36 mobile guns and six HIMARS multiple rocket launchers by 2026. Additionally, each infantry battalion has nine towed 120mm mortars. We are also purchasing large quantities of different types of ammunition.
Multiple rocket launchers give us a completely new deep fire strike capability, the ability to launch 70 or 300 kilometers, depending on the range of different types of missiles. These developments are positive, but will not be realized before 2026.
Unfortunately, multiple rocket launchers do not replace the direct and indirect fire capability we need to support frontline units. We delivered 67 artillery weapon systems to us Indeed to ally Ukraine, which further reduced our limited indirect fire capability. The government has not shown us a plan for replacing the weapons that will be supplied to Ukraine.
We currently have 24 mobile cannons, or Kõud. This capability is too poor to wage war successfully under the conditions of modern warfare. For comparison: the Finnish Defense Forces have a total of 1,690 artillery weapon systems (including 120 mm mortars).
The lack of weapons systems is a remnant of the so-called effective national defense of the previous decade, when there were only two artillery battalions in the wartime defense force structure. Evidently this was not enough even then, and is even less so in the context of combat operations in the last two years of the war in Ukraine. We see that artillery plays a very important role in modern warfare.
“It would make sense to procure wheeled mobile guns, which would be needed for two battalions, or a total of 36 weapon systems.”
The area of concern is divisional artillery. It would be reasonable to equip wheeled mobile artillery, which should be enough for two battalions, or a total of 36 weapon systems. In this case, a regiment would be formed with one battalion of long-range artillery using HIMARS and aerial ambush ammunition, and two battalions with mobile wheeled artillery with a range of up to 40 kilometers.
Decisions should be made during the preparation of the state budget strategy for the next four years (2025-2028), in the spring of this year, and capacity building should be started without delay. If so, we would get this capability in 2027-2028 at the earliest.
The 120-millimeter mortars of the infantry battalions of the infantry brigades should be replaced with those placed on trucks, that is, these units should be mechanized.
If we could accomplish all this, we would have about 200 weapon systems on the map and we would reach a reasonable proportion comparable to the Finnish one to have a sufficient independent military defense capability also in terms of indirect fire.
It must also be taken into account that if the war lasts a little longer, within 30-40 days about half of the artillery weapon systems will be put out of service, no matter how well we fight. We see this in Ukraine.
Furthermore, the increase in ammunition reserves must be continued. The anti-tank mines we gave to Ukraine must also be replaced immediately. If we could produce our own explosives for military purposes, this would enable the production of artillery shells, mortar mines, anti-tank and anti-personnel mines. The quantities are so large that producing explosives would pay for itself, as well as stimulate the economy. The role of the defense industry in the economy should not be underestimated, especially now that the economy is not in good shape and needs a positive boost.
It would be reasonable to quickly make decisions on the mechanization of the division’s artillery and 120 mm mortar batteries, because we would achieve the result only in four or five years. Certainly these decisions should not be postponed until the end of the decade. The security situation is too dangerous for this.
2024-01-17 13:37:00
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