We must objectively see how and with which technologies we can cover our energy needs and for this we must establish at the beginning of the year what scale of production we need locally. This means a clear decision on how long we will keep oil shale in the reserve, writes Mario Kadastik.
Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson expressed the opinion that Estonia does not need a nuclear power plant as a balancer of renewable energy, because other neighboring countries already have them and are building them, and that is where we get the power. This is comparable to the fact that we don’t need local agriculture to feed people, because Poland also has fields. We can import from there, because that reduces our ability to provide social benefits, because the money flows out.
Unfortunately, this is an extremely naive attitude. Local security and security of supply are important, something the National Audit Office also highlighted in its report. We don’t have many options to secure baseload energy locally if we want to get out of oil shale eventually. And gas stations aren’t so-called either net zero stations. However, it is a nuclear power plant, as a result of the recent decision of the European Parliament with overwhelmingly positive votes.
Transmission lines are clearly necessary to ensure a more efficient market and to provide opportunities for greater stability and supply, but they are also clearly a place of risk, as illustrated by the anchor saw of a Chinese cargo ship. Fortunately it did not break Estlink-1 or Estlink-2, but we cannot be sure that this will always be the case. Especially when actions become intentional.
“We need an adequate amount of controllable power in Estonia and a stabilization mechanism to cover variable capacities.”
Assuming that the connection channels are good in the normal operation phase and provide us with the most favorable energy price and the possibility of both importing and exporting, we should still examine how we can deal with connection failures or interruptions if necessary. This means that we need an adequate amount of controllable capacity in Estonia and a stabilization mechanism to cover variable capacities.
Adequate controllable power means availability about replacing the remaining oil shale technology in the GW region within the next ten to twenty years. Some of this can actually be done through registration. However, this is rather short-term (measurable in hours) and does not guarantee us the ability to drive during a calm period of several weeks. Hydrogen or hybrid (hydrogen + gas) turbines will probably not offer us a favorable price if we want to make them completely emission-free.
In any case, we need to look at technological solutions oriented towards the future and the direction in which the world is going. In many countries the problem of a large amount of random energy in the networks has arisen and, in this regard, a clear signal arrived when, at the international conference on climate change, 22 countries signed an agreement to triple the amount of production from nuclear energy by 2050. This is a very clear signal to the sector and to the world, in which direction strategically large countries are moving.
Elering’s security of supply plan emphasizes that Estonia must ensure security of supply about 1,000 MW of controllable capacity at regional level to guarantee the functioning of the electricity system even in critical conditions. For example, if for some reason external connections are broken and Estonia or all the Baltic countries have to work in the so-called special production mode, separated from the rest of the system. In practice, we currently have oil shale energy production facilities, but in the long term (2030+) we need to build new controllable zero-emission capacity.
We must clearly create a plan and a vision and objectively observe how and with which technologies we can cover our energy needs. Even in critical situations. To do this it is necessary to clearly decide at the beginning of the year the production volume we will need in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which means clearly deciding how long we will keep the oil shale in reserve.
Important input can be given by Enefit Power, who has an idea of what a rational maximum time is and how much it will cost. We also need clarity on the potential use of shale oil in place of existing plants.
It is also important to understand how many gas/hydrogen plants we have as reserve capacity and plan to build them until we develop a stable base capacity. And of course we must decide clearly on the question of a nuclear power plant that can cover a significant part of the 1,000 MW that Elering needs.
In other words, to summarize, broader connectivity is indeed very important, but when things go wrong, it is important for everyone to satisfy their own needs first and then export. So we have to be ready to do it ourselves, and the better we do it, the more we can export, which actually brings in extra money to provide social benefits.
2023-12-28 11:33:00
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