Peeter Tammistu.Photo: Arno Mikkor
We follow a poorly configured road sign that takes us into a ditch. The country needs to be put back together: critics of the reduction in the number of public employees do not understand the meaning of the change, writes Peeter Tammistu in an article sent to the Edukas Eesti opinion competition.
GPS is a useful gadget for finding the right path. It becomes a disaster if the GPS is set incorrectly and is not detected. GDP forecasts are like an economic GPS. Oops, for the beginning of the year we have two different GPSs: the state budget and the economic forecast of the Eesti Pank. Which one to drive?
“I was distressed and worried that people had such a wrong view of the world. When you use your car’s GPS, it’s important that it’s based on the right data. You wouldn’t trust it if it guided you based on a map of another city, not this one, which you are in because you would know you are going to the wrong place.
So how can politicians solve global problems if they operate on the basis of false facts? How can business people make decisions that make sense for their organizations when their worldview is upside down?” (Hans Rosling “Fact Completeness”)
Good question. What does our GPS show? The Ministry of Finance forecasts economic growth of 2.7% in 2024, on the basis of which the state budget was prepared. The European Parliament predicts that a continuing recession awaits us. Wrong GPS: did you end up in a ditch?
Indeed, our GPS is terrible, and even the PE forecast is too optimistic considering all factors. According to the latest forecasts, “Estonia’s economic recession will be longer than previously thought” – a worryingly muted picture. Presumably even longer and deeper, if you take into account the cumulative effect of additional costs.
Tax surtax leads to deep recession
Given our economic structure (and established administration), we need to prepare for a recession of around 10% (at best). When this scenario occurs, the institutions’ GDP forecasts not only represent a map of the wrong city, but a map of a different city.
The “soft fall” of 2023 occurred only because jobs were preserved thanks to the efforts of entrepreneurs. He was waiting. Hopefully. Now… Times of crisis have consumed the reserves and investment reserves of businesses, but tax increases (all by a couple of percentage points) lead to a deep decline in the economy as a whole.
“X-Events” by John Cast illustrates that the body of a 90 kg man is composed of approximately 70% (63 kg) water. Losing even 10-15% of water causes organs to fail. “It is not necessary to lose all the water in the system. A small percentage is enough. The same is true in modern society.”
Luckily, part of it is fine, but it “goes away”, it’s like crawling: you breathe and pull, breathe and… Then part of it stops breathing.
A tax increase of a few percentage points here and there and our products become permanently uncompetitive in target markets. The problem is that our target markets themselves are in trouble, and since our economy is a “reservoir economy”, in difficult times, when every reasonable politician and economic leader tries to keep production (and votes) in the domestic market, we are in trouble. left dry.
It’s not the first time: exports are decreasing, unemployment is increasing. Additional costs from increased taxes, war, refugee costs, and defense accumulate and settle into the prices of our products. 2024 will be a difficult year. It will be the year of the wrong GPS.
The demand for energy is increasing
As the ad says: “That’s not all!”, because even the GPS for energy and mobility is set up illusively. With this reserve of energy we will be the losers of the race. While nuclear electricity is not suitable for us and we try to make fossils work together, the need for energy grows. Iron bolt. Realistically. Dramatically.
In primitive-vulgar terms, within 5-10 years our electricity needs should grow at least 3 times! How come? Elementary. In the green vortex, the political market has put all its cards on electricity: electric trains, electric buses, electric cars, even electric ships, without worrying about where the energy comes from.
Oh, and when 5G takes off (which means almost everything will be powered by electricity), the need for electricity will increase about fivefold.
Our GPS is wrong. Furthermore, we do not differentiate between renewable energy and carbon neutrality. “Carbohydrates in the things we burn are made up of hydrogen and carbon, which combine with oxygen to release energy to form H2O and CO2. The ratio of the oldest carbon-based fuels, dry wood fuel carbon atoms, to hydrogen atoms is about 10:1. Coal 2:1, oil 1:2, natural gas 1:4.” (Steven Pinker, “Enlightenment Today”)
Burning wood in boilers is pollution. What should be the right GPS? Good question. At the moment we can’t even clean the corridors, how can we multiply the next need for electricity? We are an energetic company. No electricity, no development. It will be the year of the wrong GPS.
The Riigikogu’s GPS is also out of order, or rather there are two GPS settings and it was not possible to match them. There can’t be an agreement between Tallinn and Tartu GPS… Türi GPS? Or can you? The wise men of the world rush to take advantage of the changes, we remain stuck. It will be the year of the wrong GPS.
What should be done? To recombine the country, obviously! The political market does not want to reform the state. Comfort? Incompetence? Stating that reducing the number of officials will result in “very little savings”, the significance of the changes was not understood. This is not a dismissal of officials, but a cumulative process that frees up money, time, high-level industry specialists and creativity. This is a new service sector, not a criminal unit. Just what we need.
Cheap GPS done right!
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Edukas Eesti is a competition from Äripää, Helmes, Eesti Gaas, If Kindlustuse, Ellex Raidla Advokaadibüro, Swedbank and Verston, where we are waiting for ideas to update Estonia’s success story and accelerate development in the form of an opinion article.
You can participate in the competition with a maximum of two papers, the length of the article is a maximum of 5000 characters (including spaces). The central evaluation criteria are the originality of the ideas, the feasibility and the brilliant presentation. The Grand Prize earns the winner 10,000 euros, the second 3,000 and the third 2,000 euros.
The jury is made up of the owners and managers of the organizing companies, the competition is conducted by the opinion editor of Äripäv. The competition ends March 31, 2024.
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2024-01-23 12:00:00
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