Raivo Vare: a new phase of the war began

Author: Raivo Vare • 8 December 2023

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskiy presents the battle flag on the occasion of the anniversary of the Ukrainian army on December 6.

Author: Reuters/Scanpix

With the arrival of winter, Ukrainians must better organize strategic defense both on the front and for civil infrastructure, while Putin tries to increase his political influence and fill the war coffers, writes observer Raivo Vare on the economic blog of the Ukrainian war published on Äripää.

As feared at the time of the previous blog post, Russia’s efforts to regain the strategic initiative in the war with Ukraine have proven somewhat successful. At least to this day, it is a recognized assessment that in a sense a new balance has developed on the fronts, which some involved parties tend to call a stalemate in chess terminology.

The context is clearly the depletion of aid to Ukraine from Western allies, simultaneously with a certain war fatigue and also the negative effects of internal political struggles brought into focus by the key electoral period that has begun. Especially in the key country of the United States.

Furthermore, the war provoked by Hamas in the Middle East has created further tensions between the West and especially between the main oil producers, Arabia. And the initially relatively effective sanctions on Russian oil in the form of price caps turned out to be insufficient, because the Russians, in cooperation with third parties, found ways to circumvent them.

That there have been changes in the war was hinted at by the article published in the prestigious international newspaper The Economist by the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhnyi, which has already attracted a lot of attention. There, the general expressed the opinion that a stalemate in the war was emerging. The reason is the delays on the Western side in providing military aid and its insufficient scope.

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2023-12-08 21:04:03
raivo-vare-a-new-phase-of-the-war-began

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