The decline in the stock market price of natural gas, which began in mid-October, has brought the price close to summer lows and, if the mild winter weather continues, it is not out of the question that the stock price will fall below 30 euros per megawatt hour, they said the experts who spoke at the ERR.
If in mid-October the price of natural gas on the Dutch gas exchange was 54 euros per megawatt hour, as of Wednesday the price was 20 euros lower. The price decline has continued for two months with small jumps upwards and the fall may continue.
The current drop in prices is due to good preparation for the winter, i.e. sufficiently full gas tanks and sufficient supply of LNG. The onset of a mild winter in Western Europe also makes prices cheaper, said Marko Allikson of Baltic Energy Partners.
The influence of the weather and good gas reserves was also confirmed by Kalvi Nõu, head of energy trading at Alexela.
How the price moves on the stock market depends a lot on time. “Stain-Prices that fall below 30 euros are not excluded given that on Tuesday the price reached 32 euros. If the climate is mild, there is a lot of renewable energy (renewable energy – ed.) and LNG continues to flow to Europe, then the tanks will start to be filled again in winter, which reduces the risks after the end of the heating season and is expected that will keep prices low,” Allikson said.
Näu further noted that, although it is rather difficult to accurately predict the price in advance, an important prerequisite for the continuation of the price decline is certainly a warm winter, which would keep consumption stable. “We observed a similar price trend last winter,” she added.
At the same time, it should be borne in mind that it is only mid-December and most of the winter is still ahead, and it is currently difficult to make a prediction about the need to fill the tanks.
According to Allikson, the fact that prices fall to the summer level in winter is nothing extraordinary.
“Such price declines during the winter period are actually quite common during a mild winter – this is how prices moved in the 2019-2020 winter period and also last year,” he said.
2023-12-13 13:38:00
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