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Then, the States have fallen one after another on the side of Trump and Biden as the scrutiny progressed, sweeping the country from east to west, only with that exception of Vermont in favor of Haley.
On Trump’s part, although his lead is overwhelming, the question is how many of those voters who vote for Nikki Haley will support him when November 5 arrives. The former president appears weaker in the more moderate counties, with higher educational levels. The specter that haunts the Republicans, and about which Haley has repeatedly warned, is that Trump could once again scare away independent and moderate voters when push comes to shove, as happened in 2018, 2020 and 2022. In several states, Nikki Haley has surpassed 25%. Aside from 50% in Vermont, the candidate has had some support in Utah (42%), Massachusetts (37%), Virginia (35%), Colorado (33%) and Minnesota (29%).
Nikki Haley has only resisted in Vermont, where she won a very close vote with 50% of the votes. It is a state that votes Democratic in the presidential elections and has a moderate Republican governor, the most favorable terrain for Haley. Until now, the candidate had only won the testimonial Republican primaries in Washington DC, where only about 2,000 members voted. Haley, however, has been clearly defeated in Massachusetts and Maine, the other two New England states.
Trump has come out to claim victory at his Mar-a-Lago mansion, in Palm Beach, Florida, where he has described Biden as the worst president in history (a position that historians actually award to him). “In some senses we are a Third World country, we are a Third World country on our borders,” he has said. Alone on stage and with fifteen United States flags behind him, he gave a somewhat disjointed speech, with back-and-forths about the border, inflation, crime, “chinavirus”…
Biden has even less opposition on the Democratic side, with a clean sweep of victories, most of them with more than 80% or 90% of the vote. As is often the case with presidents in office, no major rival from the Democratic Party has challenged him. The rival candidates were marginal: the unknown congressman Dean Philips and the self-help book writer Marianne Williamson, who even announced her withdrawal, although she later resumed the campaign.
The allocation of delegates is slower, due to the different allocation rules in each State, which sometimes required waiting for the vote to progress further. Even so, both Biden and Trump have swept in that section and are approaching the threshold of the nomination. Trump has so far achieved 722 on Super Tuesday and Haley, 46, when there are more than 80 left to assign. The former president will have the mathematical bar within reach with the 161 delegates in contention on March 12, when voting takes place in Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and the State of Washington. As the Democratic calendar is somewhat behind the Republican one, Biden will still have to wait another week, until March 19 (when Arizona, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio vote), even if he continues to win in all the States.
No rivals for Biden
Millions of citizens voted at the polls, by mail, through electronic voting screens or even without getting out of the car, as in some places in California. Despite the facilities, the data indicates that participation has been low, probably due to the low results.
In the Republican case, 874 of the 2,429 delegates to the convention are elected. Trump needs 1,215. On the part of the Democratic Party, 1,420 of the 1,968 necessary delegates are assigned.
Trump avoided quoting Haley, although he called for party unity. He, the most divisive figure in decades of American politics, has complained that the country is too divided. “We have to win the elections, because if we lose the elections we will no longer have a country,” he said in another of his usual phrases. He ended his nearly 20 minutes of speech with the motto of him, Make America Great Again: “We will make our country greater than ever in history.”
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It has been the least contested Super Tuesday in history, comparable only to that of 1996, with the difference that only seven states voted then. Nothing to do with the fierce battles between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in 2008, but not even with the competition between Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in 2016 or the one that pitted Biden against Bernie Sanders in 2020. In reality, no Super Tuesday until now I had witnessed such an overwhelming (and so predictable) result.
Small warning signs
The race is decided, but half of the States still have to vote. The remaining primaries will be practically irrelevant. Of the six that will tip the balance in the November elections, only Michigan and Nevada have voted so far. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona remain. This Super Tuesday there were no elections in any of the decisive states.
Trump has scored victory in California, Texas and North Carolina, the Super Tuesday States that contribute the most delegates. In reality, he has already won in 14 of the 15 States that voted yesterday and has clearly won in them. With the count almost complete, it has especially swept Alaska (88%), Alabama (83%), Oklahoma (82%), Texas (78%), Tennessee (77%), California (79%), Arkansas (77% ), North Carolina (74%), Maine (72%), and Minnesota (69%). He has also had more than 60% of the vote in Colorado, Massachusetts and Virginia and 57% in Utah.
Haley spent election night in her home state, South Carolina. Throwing in the towel before they finished voting in California and Alaska would have been too much. She finally announced her retirement this Wednesday. The day before, her campaign had released a statement saying there remain large groups of Republican voters with deep concerns about the direction of the Republican Party under Trump.
Despite the overwhelming dominance, there are small warning signs for the two candidates. Biden has achieved more than 80% and 90% of support in most states, but in Minnesota the Michigan phenomenon of votes for “uncommitted” delegates has reappeared, a kind of blank vote to protest the support for Israel in the Gaza war, which has reached around 19%. This has been added to 8% for the local candidate Dean Philips, with which Biden solo He has achieved 71% there. In Massachusetts, those protest votes have also reached 9% and in Colorado, 8%. Biden has had a token defeat in the territory of American Samoa, where businessman Jason Palmer won by 51 votes to 40. American Samoa does not vote in the November presidential elections, but sends six delegates to the Democratic convention.
The forecasts have been fulfilled. As the polls anticipated, Super Tuesday has been a triumphant ride for Donald Trump. Although the former president did not mathematically achieve the virtual nomination, he gave a blow of authority that was definitive this Wednesday, with the resignation of his only rival, Nikki Haley. Trump has been leaving behind all the Republican contenders who have dared to challenge him. Several withdrew before the primaries even began. Investor Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis threw in the towel in the first round, after their failure in the caucus from Iowa. Haley was knocked out by Trump this Tuesday. Now comes the moment of truth, the definitive battle for the White House. As in 2020, he will once again face Joe Biden, who has also swept the Democratic Super Tuesday in the absence of true rivals. It will be in the presidential elections on November 5, 245 days from now.
For its part, the Biden campaign has released a statement from the president celebrating his victory and attacking Trump. “Are we going to keep moving forward or will we allow Donald Trump to drag us back into the chaos, division and darkness that defined his tenure?” he asks.
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