Chris Morrison: El Niño behind 2023’s ‘world on fire’, like 2016

El Niño chart: NASA

Everyday skeptic environmental news editor Chris Morrison Statesthat the “shippers” who talk about the “hottest summer in human history” in 2023 are lying and common The boy with the effects of the so-called climate phenomenon. The Hunga Tonga eruption probably contributes a little to this.

A typical year of politicized climate science is coming to an end. The climate fanatics were playing their usual pseudoscientific games. Various weather anomalies were linked together and it was concluded that all humans would die immediately. Human extinction can only be prevented by surrendering to a collectivist zero-emission Great Reset.

“We truly live in an age of climate collapse,” declared the mentally ill UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres at the recently concluded COP28 climate conference. The corporate media, in turn, rails against the claim that this year was the “hottest” year in history and that heat records have been broken almost every month. All this selective fact-gathering ignores the inconvenient fact that time is probably behind all these differences The boy the amplification of global heat transfer, which may have contributed to the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption. If you look at the latest global temperatures calculated by NASA, you can see that the recent pattern of large month-long weather differences is similar to the last one in 2015-2016. year The boy with your.

The following table was prepared by Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Goddard Institute for Space Studies; GISS) and aggregates the NASA global temperature dataset. The trend of major anomalies – observable from October 2015 to April 2016 – is similar to the temperature fluctuations that occurred in June this year. Larry Hamlin recently published in a popular scientific publication Is Watts up to the task? enlightening essay pointing out that the GISS measured a temperature anomaly of 1.37°C in February 2016, compared to the “warmest month on record” of 1.44 degrees (°C) measured in November this year. This means a temperature difference of more than 1/14 of a degree (compared to 2016). Hamlin says GISS data shows how 2023’s warmest global temperature anomalies are driven The boy.

The scientific community is far from being able to evaluate The boy all effects. It is a great machine for transferring heat from the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere. Predicting individual associated weather changes is difficult because its effects contribute to many other natural atmospheric and oceanic movements. However, scientists know this The boy it can cause large regional variations in weather patterns, which makes similarly robust claims The boy in case of bad weather, human activity would be to blame. In progress The boy it may also become a bit more powerful as it moves through the Northern Hemisphere winter. On the other hand, however, it is also possible that it will begin to recede.

The boy it can cause large regional variations in weather patterns, which makes similarly robust claims The boy in case of bad weather, human activity would be to blame.

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; NOAA) is currently not sure what the current one is The boy power in the future. NOAA only notes that if more vigorous weather events “could amplify El Ninoga associated climate anomalies, this does not necessarily mean that the possible effects will manifest themselves in all regions or will be more intense than usual.”

Sure, this year’s weather has been extraordinary, but most of the political propaganda about droughts, fires, and hurricanes only impresses the people who’ve been wearing blinders the longest. The number of extreme weather events is not increasing and has not increased for many years. Furthermore, the number of deaths due to extreme weather events has decreased by more than 90% over the last hundred years. This happened because people are much richer thanks to the use of hydrocarbons and can protect themselves from the whims of Mother Nature with better and more expensive solutions.

This year’s extraordinary weather patterns may also be influenced by another natural phenomenon. In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga underwater volcano erupted, releasing an additional 13% of water vapor into the upper atmosphere. Water vapor makes up about 4% of the atmosphere, and although it is short-lived and constantly replaced, it acts as a powerful heat-trapping gas. Whatever the long-term effects of said volcanic eruption, they will affect the natural hydrological cycle as the extra amount of water in the atmosphere will decrease in the coming years.

The more extreme the climate or weather conditions, the greater the contribution of nature’s diversity and the lower the contribution of human-caused climate warming.

In 2022 there was a lot of scientific interest in Hunga Tonga, but the latest research seems to underestimate its effects. However, a group of European scientists say that the extraordinary nature and scale of the global disturbance caused by the Hunga Tonga eruption “make it one of the most remarkable climate events of the modern observation period, with potentially long-term consequences for stratospheric structure and climate”.

Good science shows that many different events influence weather and climate change. “Done” (settled) the science used to promote a zero-emissions regime is a distortion of science because it fails to explain anything other than the unproven hypothesis that humans are the cause of all or most climate change. Atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington Cliff Mass summarizes climate science as follows: “The more extreme the climate or weather, the more the diversity of nature (natural variability) contributes to it, and the smaller the contribution of human-caused climate warming.”

Translated by Karol Kallas

2023-12-22 06:13:13
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