Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is emerging as the leading alternative to Donald Trump in the Republican primaries, but the former president continues to maintain a wide lead in the polls with just 10 days until the primaries.
In national polls, an average of 62.7% of Republicans support Donald Trump as the official presidential candidate, according to data from the site RealClearPolitics, which analyzes opinion polls.
Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are essentially tied in national polls, with 11 and 10.9 percent of Republicans, respectively. Support for all other candidates is less than 5%.
However, the picture painted by polls in states that voted first is very different.
Donald Trump leads convincingly in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, which will be the first four states to vote in the Republican primaries in January and February.
However, Haley and DeSantis’ support is tied only in Iowa, which votes Jan. 15, at 20 to 15 percent. About half of Republicans support Donald Trump.
In New Hampshire, more than 40% of Republicans support Trump, while Haley is a clear second with about 25% of voters. DeSantis’ support is less than 10%. New Hampshire Republicans and unaffiliated voters will vote in the Republican and Democratic primaries as early as January 23.
A recent poll conducted by Emerson College in South Carolina indicates that in this state too the competition is only between Trump and Haley. Trump has the support of 54% of likely voters, Haley has the support of 25% and DeSantis has the support of only 7% of those polled. South Carolina voters will go to the polls on February 24.
The same poll shows that Haley’s support is much higher among independent voters, while Trump’s lead is even greater among Republicans and more enthusiastic voters. Polls in New Hampshire show similar results, suggesting Haley may gain support from moderate voters. Of course, this will only happen when these voters actually go to vote.
As a result, the Trump campaign and the nonprofits that support it have commissioned television ads in recent weeks touting Haley’s alleged soft spot on immigration. The ads also recall Haley’s previous support for increasing fuel taxes in South Carolina. Haley promises to eliminate this excise tax at the federal level as part of the current campaign.
According to analysts who spoke to Politico, Trump’s goal is to ensure that the great expectations placed on him actually materialize on the day of the primaries. Trump’s campaign is based on the premise that there is no alternative to his candidacy. A better-than-expected performance by Haley in Iowa and New Hampshire could shatter the myth of the inevitability of a Trump victory.
DeSantis, in turn, will mainly attack Trump in the remaining days of the campaign, arguing that the former president is not anti-abortion enough. The governor of Florida banned abortion in his state after the sixth week of pregnancy, while Trump called this restriction “a terrible thing”.
According to some analysts, DeSantis’ campaign could end immediately after the Iowa primaries if he does not obtain a good result, or even finish in third place behind Trump and Haley.
According to polls, states after Iowa are much more favorable to Haley than to DeSantis, and anti-Trump voters may rally behind the former governor of South Carolina. At the same time, some DeSantis supporters prefer the former president as second choice, rather than the former governor of South Carolina.
2024-01-05 18:58:00
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