According to a new poll, the support of former US President Donald Trump, who aspires to become the official Republican presidential candidate, has risen to its highest level so far in the state of Iowa, while in New Hampshire the support of former Carolina South Governor Nikki Haley is on the rise.
Iowa and New Hampshire were key in choosing the next Republican presidential candidate, as they will vote there as early as January. Republican supporters in Iowa will vote on January 15, while Republicans in New Hampshire will vote on January 23.
New polls commissioned by CBS News in the two states show different trends: While the Iowa poll gives Donald Trump reason to cheer, New Hampshire gives Haley supporters hope.
In Iowa, support for Trump rose to 58% of likely voters. The former president’s support is seven percentage points higher than that found in a poll conducted by the same research firm in September. It’s also the highest support for Trump in Iowa by any polling firm in recent months.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came in second in Iowa in December, with 22% of voters supporting him. In September, 21% of voters supported him. It’s a poor showing for a politician whose campaign focused on Iowa and who recently reiterated his pledge to support Trump in the state.
In third place is Haley in Iowa, who has the support of 13% (8% in September) of voters.
In September, support for entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy fell from 5 to 4 percent, while support for Chris Christie increased from 1 to 3 percent.
The fact that support for most candidates has grown in the last three months is due to the fact that several Republicans have dropped out of the race in the meantime, including former Vice President Mike Pence and U.S. Senate Representative from South Carolina, Tim Scott. The share of respondents with a defined preference also increased.
Nikki Haley is emerging in New Hampshire
On the other hand, the fight in New Hampshire is much more even, and Nikki Haley is emerging as Trump’s main rival in that state.
Donald Trump’s approval rating fell from 50% in September to 44%, keeping the former president in first place in the state.
Nikki Haley came in second place with 29% support from Republicans and independent voters planning to participate in the primary. As of September, only 11% of Republican supporters in the state of New Hampshire supported him.
DeSantis is in third place with 11%. In September, 13% of the state’s likely Republican primary voters voted for him.
In fourth place is Christie, who increased his support from 8 to 10%. The fifth is Ramaswamy, supported by 5% of voters instead of the previous 8%.
Haley’s support in New Hampshire has grown especially among moderate and independent voters. Among these groups, her support is similar to Trump’s. Independent voters are eligible to vote in party primaries in many states, including New Hampshire, making this group of voters important.
Also helping Haley’s campaign is the fact that New Hampshire Republicans are more moderate than their Iowa counterparts. While 74% of likely Republican primary voters in Iowa support a total abortion ban, only 43% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire share the same opinion.
So far, DeSantis and Ramaswamy have strongly supported abortion bans at the federal level, and Christie said it should be up to individual states. Trump has so far refrained from publicly supporting a total abortion ban and has made few comments on the issue, while Haley has spoken of the need to reach a social compromise on the issue.
Haley’s strengths are her likability and reasonableness in the eyes of voters. 55% of New Hampshire voters say Haley is “nice” and 51% say she is a “reasonable” candidate. In both cases only 36% of voters say the same thing about Trump.
At the same time, Trump also has strengths. While 66% of New Hampshire voters call him a “strong leader,” only 41% of New Hampshire voters say the same of Haley. Additionally, 51% of New Hampshire Republican supporters believe Trump can easily win the general election against Democratic President Joe Biden, while only 32% of voters say the same about Haley.
Haley’s rise in New Hampshire is also important to her campaign because it is the state she focused on most during the primaries. Additionally, Haley is campaigning in her home state of South Carolina, which will be the fourth state to vote on Feb. 24.
2023-12-18 15:47:00
new-poll-trump-widens-lead-in-iowa-haleys-support-increases-in-new-hampshire-foreign-country