punti

Despite all the formulas and distinctions that animated the pre-vote debate — “I take two yeses and three noes”, “I only take two ballots, thank you…” — in the end, turnout was practically the same for all questions. As well as being far from the quorum: at 30.6% (Italy data, it is lower with the vote of Italians abroad, at 29.9). And, with the significant exception of the citizenship ballot, the results are also homogeneous, with the yes over 87%.

14.1 million voters went to the polls. Not enough to reach the quorum target. But it was another the bar set by the leaders of the center-left, reiterated in unison in yesterday’s declarations: exceeding the 12.3 million votes that in 2022, in the political elections, sent Giorgia Meloni to Palazzo Chigi (the data concerns the national territory and with this, therefore, the comparison is made here: it would rise to 12.6 with abroad). Comfortable bar, certainly, moreover, it was the promoters themselves who set it. But in the end, at least that one, was it overcome?

The Threshold Touched Upon

“The final data risks not even giving satisfaction to this threshold,” notes Lorenzo Pregliasco, director of YouTrend. Take the questions on work, where the Democratic Party, M5S and Avs were united for yes. Here they stopped at 12.250 million, considering the question that collected the most, on layoffs (Italy data), considering also the vote of Italians abroad we are just above 13 million. That is, they have touched on those famous 12.3, there was no clear overtaking. Only, in fact, considering the foreign polling stations, it exceeds, slightly, the 12.6 million of Meloni in 2022. “And on citizenship we are very far away“. The number of those who responded affirmatively to the proposal to halve the time for the request — supported by the Democratic Party, Avs, Action, Iv and +Europa — stops around 9 million. Evidentemente something didn’t work: “On the one hand there was a politicization of the questions, beyond the merits, and this distanced a part that is not militant. Pushing on the identity pedal, on the other hand, it was not enough to mobilize the opposition electorate in force,” comments Pregliasco.

PD vs 5 Stars

Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna, strongholds of the Democratic Party, are the two regions where turnout is highest (39.1 and 38.1 respectively). In the South, in historical basins of the 5 Stars, percentages are recorded below the national average (23.1 in Sicily, 27.7 in Sardinia, a little better in Campania, 29.9). It is one of the first data discussed in the post-vote debate: a sign that should worry the 5 Star Movement? “A lower participation was expected in the South, it is a trend already recorded and in addition Article 18 and citizenship speak less to that electorate,” Pregliasco anticipates. But from the analysis of YouTrend a data emerges: “In the strongholds of the Democratic Party and Avs — that is, in the municipalities where these parties in 2022 and in the last European elections have cashed in better results than their national average — turnout was above 36%. In the strongholds of the 5 Stars below 28%”.

ZTLs and Peripheries

There is another piece of data, the distribution of votes in cities. In the historic centers of the big cities, the yes to citizenship were higher: 80% in the Milan 1 district (against 74% of the city average and above the national result) and in Turin 1 exceeds 81%, a result 5 points higher than layoffs. Here they have adhered more to citizenship than to work: from San Salvario to Mirafiori, in the popular areas, instead, the most voted were the questions on contracts. “Situation, that of ZTLs, which, as often happens, is not representative of the trends of the country”.

The Big Cities

Driving turnout are above all the big cities. For Salvatore Vassallo, professor of Political Science and director of the Istituto Cattaneo, one of the most evident data “is the difference between large and small centers“: “In the cities over 350 thousand inhabitants, on average, 7 percentage points of turnout were recorded more than the average of all the municipalities. The difference rises to 10 points if the comparison is made with the centers under 15 thousand inhabitants. This gap had never been recorded,” comments the political scientist. And not only “because in the large centers the voters of the broad field voted above all, and among these above all the voters of the Democratic Party”, think of Florence at 46.9 and Bologna at 47.7 (but then there are also Turin, 41.4%, Genoa, 40.4, Milan, 36.8, and Rome, 36.2). “Perhaps — he continues — there is something else, the citizens closest to the “structured networks” of the trade union, of the parties, have been mobilized”. On turnout, however, Vassallo does not speak of a collapse: “If we compare it with the referendums after 1999 — a key year that certified that a quota of strategic abstentionism is enough to block a consultation — we are substantially in line”.

Center-Right at the Polls

Be careful, however, to read these data with an excessively “parliamentary” tone, where the yeses are the opposition and the abstainers the majority. “In reality, it’s all more nuanced than that,” explains Antonio Noto, who directs Noto Sondaggi. The surveys on the vote have shown “that a fifth of the center-right electorate went to vote, while a third of the center-left electorate did not go to the polls. Even a part of the Democratic Party electorate did not go”.

The North versus South difference is marked. “Yes, the North voted more, but beyond Veneto, we find among the regions where turnout is highest Piedmont and Liguria, governed by the center-right”. According to Noto, an “down effect” for the late abstainers may have influenced the final result: “The data of Monday, of how many voted from 7 to 15, is lower in comparison with the data of the previous Mondays. Probably the result of Sunday evening has discouraged many from going to the polls“.

It should be noted that for the first time, turnout was higher among women than among men (with the only exception of Taranto, noted YouTrend). Only a year ago in 91 provinces the men had participated more.

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