Short ETF speculation is tricky

Bull and bear on the edge of a crumbling cliff

To bet on price losses on the stock exchanges is only worthwhile in the short term.

(Photo: imago images / Ikon Images)

Equities, oil, gold – a look at the fund balance sheet for the first quarter shows that the bottom line is that investors have lost a lot of money in most asset classes. Investors who bet on falling prices have made money, but these bets are tricky.

So-called short ETFs are one way of speculating on falling prices from indices. These exchange-traded index funds reflect the opposite percentage development of indices.

Read on now

Get access to this and every other article in

Web and in our app for 4 weeks for free.

Further

Read on now

Get access to this and every other article in

Web and in our app for 4 weeks for free.

Further

Our newsletter for better decisions about your finances

.

Oil price crash pulls Wall Street down

Wall Street

The corona virus and its further effects on the economy are still the focus of the US stock exchange.

(Photo: AP)

Dusseldorf At the beginning of the new trading week, Wall Street suffered significant losses. The Dow Jones slipped almost two percent shortly after the start of trading to 23,873 points.

The broadly chamfered S&P 500 also fell by around two percent to 2,830 points, the Nasdaq composite index slipped to 8,559 points, making it a good one percent in the loss zone. About an hour later, the prices of the indices recovered only slightly.

Last week, Donald Trump’s exit strategy from the corona crisis and the prospect of a drug against the virus had given hope to US investors. Over the course of the week, the Dow had risen by 2.2 percent, the S&P by three and the Nasdaq 100 index by 6.1 percent.

The slide on Wall Street is due in particular to falling oil prices. Monday is the Prices for US crude oil plummeted. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WT) fell up to 40 percent to around $ 11 – the lowest in over 21 years. This continues the drop in oil prices. A decline of almost 85 percent has been recorded since the beginning of the year.

The fall in prices can be justified in particular by the high oil stocks in the USA. In addition, there is the situation with futures contracts for crude oil deliveries. The June contract for the US variety WTI slipped 6.5 percent to $ 27.52 and the May future, which expired on Tuesday, even fell by almost a third to $ 12.41. WTI was last that cheap 21 years ago.

In the wake of another drop in the price of crude oil, the stocks of the oil companies are also coming under pressure. For example, the papers of companies like Apache, Marathon, Hess and Schlumberger dropped by up to 8.3 percent at times, but were able to recover. The titles of the oil multinationals ExxonMobil and Chevron lost around three percent.

In the Medical technology company Co-Diagnostics those responsible are happy about the consistently high demand for corona virus tests. This creates a good mood among investors. The company’s paper rose 15.3 percent to $ 15.10 after gaining 11 percent in pre-exchange US business. The price has roughly doubled since the beginning of the month.

With agency material.

More: Read here how the German stock market developed on Monday.

.

Corona exposes the companies that are only apparently digital

Uber office in Hong Kong

The travel agent Uber announced billions in depreciation and withdrew its forecast.


(Photo: dpa)

The analysis was as short as it was hard. “Most people will be poorer after the corona crisis,” said Winfried Kretschmann, Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg, a few days ago. But this hardly applies to many founders of large internet companies. The assets of AmazonChief Jeff Bezos can’t do anything about the corona pandemic. The richest man in the world has even risen a few billion dollars since New Year’s Eve. No stock was able to recover as quickly from the stock market crash in March as the papers of the world’s largest online delivery service.

Crisis? What crisis? Many technology companies are emerging as preliminary economic winners of the pandemic. The streaming service Netflix overtook the traditional group for the first time this week Disney as the most valuable media company in the world. In the shadow of Corona, a changing of the guard that has already begun is gaining momentum. “Euphoria is your enemy,” is one of the bon mot of legendary investor Warren Buffett.

But there is much to suggest that the enthusiasm of the stock exchange is more rational than many might think – although investors should carefully differentiate. Because Covid-19 is primarily a virus that hits the analogue world with full force. Corona, on the other hand, is becoming a turbocharger for the digital world: In the home office, people are now communicating via online video conferences, ordering their food and new shoes via digital delivery services and discovering that films can be streamed quite well at home.

Even if normal life returns little by little, many people will never forget this: Digitization offers – also and especially in crisis situations – many opportunities that make life easier.

But Corona is also currently exposing which companies are digital, but which are not really. So the operator broke Over already posted depreciation in the billions and withdrew its forecast. Uber is essentially a taxi business. The company is more like the car rental company Sixt, which, however, has a solid balance sheet.

Investors should therefore weigh it up carefully. Only companies whose heart beats as completely as possible in the digital world are little affected by the economic consequences of Covid-19. That should ensure that Netflix & Co. emerge stronger from the crisis. Technology stocks have so far been considered more volatile on the stock exchange. That could change. Large technology companies like Google, Facebook and Apple have what it takes to become the safe havens of the future on the stock exchange.

More: Softbank puts € 38 billion package against the stock collapse.

.

Top managers are picky about stocks

“The insiders live out their countercyclical character,” says Olaf Stotz, professor at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. That means: The executives who know their companies better than anyone else go bargain hunting if they consider the shares of their own companies on the stock exchange to be undervalued.

According to Stotz, this is no longer so clearly the case. “The insiders’ belief that the stock market recovery would continue in the short term appears to be limited, otherwise they would have continued to buy at the same pace,” says the university lecturer.

graphic

From the second week of March to early April, German listed companies reported almost 400 executives’ share purchases to the financial regulator Bafin. Since then, the number of purchases has almost halved with the sharply rising share prices. Purchases over several hundred thousand euros are also largely passé.

Accordingly, the insider barometer, which Stotz regularly calculates from transactions reported to Bafin exclusively for the Handelsblatt, has dropped somewhat from its nine-month high of over 145 points in early April. Most recently, it was just under 139 points.

At this level, the barometer theoretically signals that stocks should outperform other asset classes over a three-month period. However, Stotz would not currently over-interpret this – precisely because the insider barometer has already moved away from the recent intermediate high.

Dax cheap at 8500 points?

The university professor would only support a new, larger rush of purchase by the board members and supervisory boards for the shares of their own companies Dax-Stands around 8,500 points expected. In mid-March, the Dax even hit below 8,300 points.

He had thus lost 40 percent since his all-time high of 13,795 points in February: “At this level, the stock market seems to be favorably valued for many managers,” says Stotz. According to the professor of asset management, private investors should only get back into the market if there are new setbacks.

In the meantime, the Dax, with almost 10,600 points, is again almost 30 percent above its March low and has been “only” 20 percent lower since the beginning of the year. Not only insiders, but investors don’t trust the rally yet. David Lafferty, chief strategist at Natixis Investment Managers: “There is too much optimism priced in the markets”. In his opinion, the negative effects of the corona crisis should occupy the markets for several quarters.

Rolf Schäffer, one of the leading macro strategists at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, sees it similarly: “The markets have currently opted for a rather positive interpretation and consider the glass to be half full.” This half full glass has “but clear” Jumps and could prove to be fragile in the event of further vibrations ”.

The largest insider purchases in the past four weeks show that board members and supervisory boards were more selective than in the first week and a half in March. Purchases were mainly made from companies that underperformed the Dax.

The biggest purchase was – as on March 10th – at Heidelberg Cement. From March 17, the Merckle family of entrepreneurs in particular once again accessed via Spohn Beteiligungs GmbH. The Merckle family is a major shareholder in Heidelberg Cement and often buys millions of shares.

The purchases of more than 70 million euros throughout March are very high even for the Merckle family represented on the Heidelberg Cement supervisory board. The building materials group’s stock fell more sharply than many other stocks and has also recovered less.

Purchases from Krones and Fresenius

At KronesIt is similar, the world’s largest bottling plant manufacturer for beverages and food, which is listed in the small value segment SDax. Here supervisory board member Petra Schadeberg-Herrmann bought shares through Schawei GmbH for a good five million euros. Schadeberg-Herrmann and board member Norbert Broger had already invested millions in the shares at the end of February and beginning of March.

The third largest share purchase in the past four weeks was also made by a company that insiders had accessed in early March. At the Healthcare company Fresenius This time, four board members and four supervisory board members bought shares. The Dax value of Fresenius shares had also suffered more than the leading index, but has since made up half of the loss.

It is not only the largest share purchases by insiders that are countercyclical, but also sales. For example, supervisory boards parted from shares in the real estate companies Patrizia and LEG, both of which have recovered well from short slumps.

Even more striking is the sale of the Hellofresh cookbox mail order company from the MDax of medium-sized values. Co-founder Thomas Griesel sold through TWG Ventures GmbH for shares valued at 14 million euros. Co-founder Dominik Richter also bought shares via DSR Venture GmbH, and board member Christian Gärtner also accessed them – but both on a comparatively small scale.

The Hellofresh share had also lost almost 30 percent between early and mid-March. However, it fell only slightly below the level at the beginning of the year and has soared to almost 70 percent since then. No other stock outperformed a German selection index.

The sender of recipes with suitable ingredients benefits enormously from the corona restrictions and closings of the restaurants. The company itself cannot foresee whether this will remain the case. In any case, management is reluctant to make a forecast for the current year.

More: Yield in Corona times: With which investments you can still earn money.

.

Insider barometer: Top managers are picky about stocks

Managers only bought titles of their own companies on a large scale until the beginning of April. Since then they have held back – and are waiting for better courses. .

Börse Express – Union demands social plan for dismissed Demel employees / PRO-GE Vienna: Do & Co suddenly wants to know nothing about social plan

The union PRO-GE held on Sunday in one
Sending a social plan for the dismissed employees of the
Traditional Viennese confectionery Demel called. Dealing with the
Company with long-time employees is “really shabby”,
explained Toni Steinmetz, State Secretary of PRO-GE Vienna. Demel
belongs to the catering group Do & Co and, according to the union, has 29 of the 86
Employees quit.

The union thinks you are in the wake of the
Short-time work agreement has been signaled that negotiations on
quickly completed a social plan for the dismissed employees
could become. “After the unions’ agreement on short-time work
Do & Co suddenly wants to know nothing about it anymore “-” despite
Million profit last year, “the criticism.

The PRO-GE announced that it would contest the layoffs and for one
Social plan agreement the arbitration at work and
To apply for social justice.

Per

 ISIN  AT0000818802
 WEB   http://www.doco.com
       https://www.proge.at

Copyright APA. All rights reserved. Redistribution, republication or permanent storage without the express prior consent of APA is not permitted.

.

Encouraging news supports US stock markets – Dow closes in plus

Dusseldorf The prospect of an end to the economic coma to combat the corona virus gives US investors hope at the end of the week. The aircraft manufacturer’s announcement BoeingStarting production again and President Donald Trump’s plans to gradually start the economy aroused the buying mood.

The Dow Jones gained 3.0 percent to 24,242 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq advanced 1.4 percent to 8,650 jobs and the broad S&P 500 rose 2.7 percent to 2,875 points. Over the course of the week, the Dow rose 2.2 percent, the S&P by three and the Nasdaq 6.1 percent. Had in Europe the Dax previously 3.1 percent and the EuroStoxx50 2.4 percent.

“The news of a possible remedy on the same day that Trump presented its opening plans gave investors reason to be optimistic that something like normal will return sometime soon,” said Joshua Mahony, market analyst at broker house IG.

US President Donald Trump presented his exit strategy from the corona crisis on Thursday. The White House plan provides for specific parameters according to which individual states can gradually loosen their restrictions. Germany would also benefit from a plan with clearly defined milestones, comments Handelsblatt author Christian Rickens.

Hope for corona drug

The biggest issue on the markets today, however, was hope for one Corona drugthat the US pharmaceutical company Gilead is currently testing. In a study by the University Clinic in Chicago, remdesivir, which was originally developed against Ebola, led to a rapid reduction in fever and a reduction in the symptoms of the lung disease, so that almost all patients could be discharged in less than a week.

At the end of the month, the group plans to present more comprehensive results from its phase 3 study. It was still too early to draw general conclusions from the success of the treatment. The pharmaceutical company’s papers grew by around eight percent.

However, they act as mood dampers Economic data from China: Economic growth there shrank by 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in the previous year. Even if China is slowly starting up its economy again after the pandemic, the country will probably not be able to lead the rest of the world economy to recovery, China correspondent Dana Heide analyzes.

The US oil prices broke in on Friday. The price of the US variety WTI temporarily lost almost twelve percent to $ 17.50 a barrel and was thus as low as it was last more than 18 years ago. US inventories were rapidly filling as refineries demand less and less crude oil, says Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of the oil business at Rystad brokerage. Nothing will change for the time being despite the planned relaxation of the virus restrictions.

Focus on individual values

Gilead: The new hope for corona therapy rose on Friday: the shares closed 9.7 percent higher.

Boeing: After a drop of eight percent on Thursday, Boeing papers were also among the winners on Friday. They gained 14.7 percent. Of the airbus-Rivale announced that it would start production again next week.

Titles like were on the sales list Amazon, Netflix or Blue apron with a minus of up to 3.7 percent: The online retailer, the streaming service and the cookbox provider had recently benefited from the exit restrictions. The prospect of easing now moved investors to take profits. Amazon and Netflix both climbed to an all-time high on Thursday.

Apple: Apple was one of the losers with a drop of almost 1.4 percent. The iPhone manufacturer’s share was downgraded by Goldman Sachs analysts from “neutral” to “sell”. The group is likely to suffer primarily from the lower demand for iPhones. The stock loses more than two percent.

With agency material.

More: Here you can find out how the German stock market developed on Friday.

.

US investors have hope – Dow is up

Wall Street

The White House’s clear exit strategy creates a better mood on Wall Street.

(Photo: AP)

Dusseldorf The US markets started trading significantly more on Friday, but have since moved more sideways. The Dow Jones index of standard values ​​is 1.64 percent firmer at 24,006 points. At the start of trading, it was still up over 2.3 percent.

The broader S&P 500 is listed at 1.6 percent on 2851 points. Since its low in March, the S&P has made up about 30 percent of the ground. The index of the technology exchange Nasdaq slightly slightly in the minus – it started the trading day with a plus of 1.5 percent.

“The news of a possible remedy on the same day that Trump presented his opening plans gives reason to be optimistic that something like normal will return sometime soon,” said Joshua Mahony, market analyst at broker house IG.

US President Donald Trump presented his exit strategy from the corona crisis on Thursday. The White House plan provides for specific parameters according to which individual states can gradually loosen their restrictions. Germany would also benefit from a plan with clearly defined milestones, comments Handelsblatt author Christian Rickens.

Hope for corona drug

The biggest issue on the markets today, however, is hope for one Corona drugthat the US pharmaceutical company Gilead is currently testing. In a study by the University Clinic in Chicago, remdesivir, which was originally developed against Ebola, led to a rapid reduction in fever and a reduction in the symptoms of the lung disease, so that almost all patients could be discharged in less than a week.

At the end of the month, the group plans to present more comprehensive results from its phase 3 study. It was still too early to draw general conclusions from the success of the treatment. The pharmaceutical company’s papers grew by around eight percent.

However, they act as mood dampers Economic data from China: Economic growth there shrank by 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in the previous year. Even if China is slowly starting up its economy again after the pandemic, the country will probably not be able to lead the rest of the world economy to recovery, China correspondent Dana Heide analyzes.

The US oil prices broke in on Friday. The price of the US variety WTI temporarily lost almost twelve percent to $ 17.50 a barrel and was thus as low as it was last more than 18 years ago. US inventories were rapidly filling as refineries demand less and less crude oil, says Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of the oil business at Rystad brokerage. Nothing will change for the time being despite the planned relaxation of the virus restrictions.

Focus on individual values

Gilead: The new hope for corona therapy increased on Friday: The papers shot up about eight percent.

Procter + Gamble: The US consumer goods giant has seen the corona pandemic grow its business. The group benefited particularly from strong inventory purchases in the drugstore sector. In the three months to the end of March, revenues increased five percent year-on-year to $ 17.2 billion, the company said on Friday. Profits rose seven percent to $ 3.0 billion. The share was up 1.3 percent on Friday evening.

Boeing: The aircraft manufacturer plans to start production again on Monday. Because of the corona pandemic, production stopped there for three weeks. At the start of trading, the share rose by more than 13 percent.

Apple: Goldman Sachs analysts downgraded iPhone manufacturer’s stock from “neutral” to “sell”. Apple is likely to suffer primarily from the lower demand for iPhones. The stock loses more than two percent.

With agency material.

More: Here you can find out how the German stock market developed on Friday.

.

Wall Street opened in plus

Wall Street

The White House’s clear exit strategy creates a better mood on Wall Street.

(Photo: AP)

Dusseldorf The US markets started trading significantly more on Friday. The Dow Jones index of standard values ​​opened 2.3 percent firmer at 24,080 points.

The broader S&P 500 gained 2.1 percent to 2,857 points. The Nasdaq technology exchange index gained 1.5 percent to 8658 points.

“The news of a possible remedy on the same day that Trump presented his opening plans gives reason to be optimistic that something like normal will return sometime soon,” said Joshua Mahony, market analyst at broker house IG.

US President Donald Trump may also have caused optimism. He presented his exit strategy from the corona crisis on Thursday. The White House plan provides for specific parameters according to which individual states can gradually loosen their restrictions. Germany would also benefit from a plan with clearly defined milestones, comments Handelsblatt author Christian Rickens.

Hope for corona drug

The biggest issue on the markets today is the hope of a Corona drugthat the US pharmaceutical company Gilead is currently testing. In a study by the University Clinic in Chicago, remdesivir, which was originally developed against Ebola, led to a rapid reduction in fever and a reduction in the symptoms of the lung disease, so that almost all patients could be discharged in less than a week.

At the end of the month, the group plans to present more comprehensive results from its phase 3 study. It was still too early to draw general conclusions from the success of the treatment.

However, they act as mood dampers Economic data from China: Economic growth there shrank by 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in the previous year. Even if China is slowly starting up its economy again after the pandemic, the country will probably not be able to lead the rest of the world economy to recovery, China correspondent Dana Heide analyzes.

The US oil prices broke in on Friday. The price of the US variety WTI temporarily lost almost twelve percent to $ 17.50 a barrel and was thus as low as it was last more than 18 years ago. US inventories were rapidly filling as refineries demand less and less crude oil, says Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of the oil business at Rystad brokerage. Nothing will change for the time being despite the planned relaxation of the virus restrictions.

Focus on individual values

Gilead: The new hope for corona therapy increased vigorously on Friday: The papers shot up to $ 85.17, or just under twelve percent, upwards.

Procter + Gamble: The US consumer goods giant has seen the corona pandemic grow its business. The group benefited particularly from strong inventory purchases in the drugstore sector. In the three months to the end of March, revenues increased five percent year-on-year to $ 17.2 billion, the company said on Friday. Profits climbed seven percent to $ 3.0 billion. The share was up one percent on Friday afternoon.

Boeing: The aircraft manufacturer plans to start production again on Monday. Because of the corona pandemic, production stopped there for three weeks. At the start of trading, the share rose by more than 10 percent.

Apple: Goldman-Sachs analysts downgraded the iPhone manufacturer’s stock from “neutral” to “sell”. Apple is likely to suffer primarily from the lower demand for iPhones. The stock loses more than one percent.

With agency material.

More: Here you can find out how the German stock market developed on Friday.

.

Wall Street closes in plus – Amazon and Netflix are growing significantly

Dusseldorf Wall Street rose on Thursday. The Dow Jones index closed 0.1 percent lower at 23,537 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.6 percent to 2799 points. The technology index Nasdaq Composite benefited from new ones Record levels on Amazon and Netflix and rose 1.7 percent to 8,532 points.

Both the shares of the e-commerce group and those of the streaming service are currently the winners of the corona crisis. Both stocks hit new all-time highs on Thursday. Amazon skyrocketed at times by more than six percent to a value of up to $ 2456 and closed more than four percent higher. Netflix peaked at more than five percent to just under $ 450 and ended the day up nearly three percent.

Poor US economic data yesterday caused Wall Street to fall. The Dow Jones index closed the trading day with a minus of almost two percent at 23,504 points, the S&P 500 also closed about two percent lower at 2783 points and the Nasdaq slipped about one percent to 8393 points.

Of a bleak report of last week’s US unemployment rate, which was published shortly before the start of the Washington stock exchange, investors are rather unimpressed this Thursday. According to this, 5.245 million Americans have applied for unemployment benefits in the past seven days.

Initial applications are considered a “real-time indicator” of the economic situation, as they are published with a delay of only one week. Analysts interviewed by Reuters had previously forecasted 5.1 million. Influenced by the corona crisis, more than 20 million US citizens have registered as unemployed within four weeks.

“The decline in economic activity is breathtaking,” said chief economist Joel Naroff from Naroff Economics. Economists estimate that the world’s largest economic power may have shrunk by up to 10.8 percent in the first quarter. That would be the sharpest decline since 1947. As of today, US President Donald Trump wants to present a plan for the exit from the “Great Lockdown” for the domestic economy.

Company figures from the United States show the serious consequences of the corona measures. For example, the stock market fluctuations of the past few weeks have caused a sharp drop in profits for asset manager giant Blackrock.

Net income fell 23 percent year-over-year to $ 806 million in the first quarter, the world’s largest asset manager said on Thursday. Assets under management declined nearly $ 1 trillion to $ 6.47 trillion by the end of March compared to the end of 2019.

The US bank Morgan Stanley also released its quarterly figures this Thursday. Accordingly, profits plummeted by almost a third to $ 1.7 billion. Nevertheless, the financial institution scores well compared to the competition.

At Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citi had halved its profit in the first quarter. With the industry leader JP Morgan he shrank by a good two thirds Wells Fargo by almost 90 percent.

Look at other asset classes

Opec announced on Thursday in its monthly report that it was facing the economic consequences of the corona crisis expect a drastic drop in oil consumption by 6.8 million barrels a dayt. The oil cartel predicts the weakest demand for Opec oil in about 30 years in the second quarter.

Accordingly, a little less than 20 million barrels a day are likely to be in demand from April to June. For March, experts expect an Opec production volume of 28 million barrels per day with a possible capacity of around 34 million barrels per day.

The development is thus viewed less pessimistically than by experts from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The interest group of industrialized countries announced on Wednesday that it expects demand to collapse this year by 9.3 million barrels a day for the current year.

However, the two major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia have expressed their willingness to intervene in the market in a joint declaration. If necessary, this could be done together with the other states of the Opec + group, according to a phone call between Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Nowak and his Saudi colleague Prince Abdulasis bin Salman. After a previous dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the large oil producers had agreed on a joint cut in production in order to stabilize the oil price.

The US variety WTI returned to its 18-year low in March and fell 1.5 percent to $ 19.58 a barrel (159 liters). The announced reduction in production by the major exporting countries appears massive, said Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst of the brokerage firm ActivTrades. “In view of the collapsed demand, it just isn’t enough.”

Against this background, the papers of shale oil producers like Marathon, Occidental or Apache slipped between five and ten percent. They suffer particularly badly from the current oil spill because, according to experts, they only work profitably from an oil price of around $ 50.

United Airlines titles lost 11.5 percent. The airline warned that the number of bookings was practically zero, and there was no rapid improvement in sight.

However, there were price increases in the health sector. At the top of the leading index, the papers of the health care provider and health insurer UnitedHealth were up almost six percent on their previous day’s strength. Abbott Laboratories’ quarterly numbers in the S&P 500 rose by more than five and a half percent. They were clearly better than expected, JPMorgan analyst Robbie Marcus said. He continues to see the pharmaceutical company as one of those companies better positioned to face both the Covid 19 crisis and a possible recession.

After a slump of just over 17 percent the previous day, Bed Bath & Beyond has now risen by 18 percent. The retailer, which specializes in kitchen, bathroom and living equipment, presented its quarterly report the day before the market closed. The numbers were better than feared.

With agency material.

More: Here you can find out how the German stock market developed on Thursday.

.