DAX outlook: mood barometer cloudy outlook

Frankfurt In the past weeks there have been repeated attempts to recover the course, on some days one could believe that the corona pandemic has already been overcome. But on Friday, disillusionment returned – the collapsed ifo business climate index made the whole dilemma clear.

The course of the mood barometer looks like a “Highway to Hell”, was the analysis of the VP Bank. The index is now significantly below the values ​​of the crisis year 2009. The simple message for the future was: “Massive income losses are imminent. We will all get poorer. This applies not only to Germany, but to all economies. ”Sometimes it is better to hear the unvarnished truth.

Other analysts and experts are also skeptical about the weekly outlook. Cautious savings by consumers and companies create a completely different economic and inflation environment than one knows from the post-war period, the analysts at MFS Investment Management believe.

They expect the earnings recovery to be weaker than the market and point to the possible dilution of earnings through capital increases. They particularly highlight 2008 as a comparison.

“When the extreme risk of the international financial crisis subsided, companies were no longer concerned with distributions, but with recapitalization. To this end, new shares were issued – at the expense of existing shareholders, whose capital was heavily diluted, ”said the investment professionals. The new wave of recapitalization has probably just started. In the past few weeks, leisure companies and service providers in the United States and Europe have already offered new shares.

Warning to bargain hunters

The BLI – Banque de Luxembourg Investments is also cautious. “The financial markets are currently giving the impression that they are underestimating the extent of the economic damage and are counting on a rapid recovery as soon as the containment measures are reversed,” is the BLI’s assessment.

Many investors are conditioned to view any decline as an opportunity to buy. However, the analysts recall that while the fall in share prices in February / March was dramatic, the valuations were also very high. As a result, the markets today are anything but cheap, especially after the recent price recovery.

Quality companies with a very solid balance sheet, one or more sustainable competitive advantages and the ability to self-finance should be preferred. The main factor that will continue to speak for stocks remains the low interest rate level and thus the lack of alternatives. At the same time, gold will become an “indispensable part of a balanced portfolio because of the inflation risks.”

After the significant recovery since mid-March, the European stock market has recently lost some momentum, the Weberbank experts believe. In addition, the balance sheet season that is already underway shows significant impacts on corporate balance sheets due to the global “lockdowns”.

Correspondingly, the analysts have also significantly lowered their profit expectations for industrial companies, but also for the banking and energy sectors. Due to the economic slump, banks faced increased write-downs on their credit books and the massive drop in yields clouded interest income. Most recently, they also negatively impacted the rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P).

The Deutsche Bank and the Commerzbank were therefore particularly under pressure on Friday “We continue to distance ourselves from these sectors and prefer creditworthy pharmaceuticals or companies from the non-cyclical consumption. In addition, titles from the technology sector are promising in our eyes, ”said the Weberbank experts.

Central banks meet worldwide

If the economic situation continues to be poor, the states and central banks will have to take further support measures. Robert Greil, chief strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers, sees an opportunity for this next week because the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are meeting.

“As a result of the unprecedented economic downturn caused by the Covid 19 consequences, all central banks will reaffirm their willingness to support,” says Greil. The economic downturn left neither governments nor central banks a choice but to take further measures to support and recover the economy.

The gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2020 will be published in the euro area on Thursday, and new growth figures will come in the US on Wednesday. Further important economic data in Germany are the preliminary inflation figures and the labor market report for April.

According to DZ Bank, the next quarter should bring an improvement in the economy, but there does not have to be a “V” or “I” recovery. This is not ignored on the stock market, many stocks are up to 80 percent down.

A large number of “mega-caps” hold up against this, mainly in the USA. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Netflix and Facebook, but also Adobe or Comcast, be stable on the way. Things are also going well for the great values ​​of the “old economy”, including Pepsico, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Home depot and Pfizer. The German Leading index Dax the strategists from DZ Bank see 11,200 points by the end of the year, and the S & P-500 for US equities at 2,800. This would at least stabilize in the medium term.

More: Yield in Corona times: With which investments you can still make money

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How professionals position themselves on the stock exchange

Frankfurt Stock Exchange

Many investors are puzzled as to where the markets will go.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt The uncertainty is great. The oil price and many stock prices are in the basement. The mood among many managers is bad. The corona crisis keeps the financial markets in suspense every day. Many investors are now thinking more than ever about where to invest their money in these unstable times.

Because the violent ups and downs on the markets shows that there is still no peace on the stock exchanges. This leaves many investors in doubt about their previous investments. Keep or prefer to sell? This is an important question for many investors, especially with equities.

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US stock exchanges hardly change – Gilead Sciences weighed down

Dusseldorf The US stock exchanges closed little changed on Thursday. Relief from US economic data initially supported Wall Street. A media report on disappointing test results with the remdesivir agent for the possible treatment of Covid-19 then depressed the mood in late trade.

The standard value index Dow Jones closed 0.2 percent higher at 23,515 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq stagnated at 8494 points. The broad S&P 500 lost 0.1 percent to 2797 points.

Last week, 4.4 million Americans applied for US unemployment benefits. In the previous week, however, the number of initial applications had been around a million higher.

The markets rated this as positive, even if a recession could not be averted, said Steven Blitz, chief economist for the USA at the research house TS Lombard. Investors appear to be betting that the economy will recover quickly if the restrictions to curb the coronavirus pandemic are relaxed.

However, Peter Cardillo, chief economist at Spartan, advised against excessive expectations. “The worst of the pandemic is probably behind us,” said Peter Cardillo, chief economist at Spartan. “But with the oil price at the current level, there is a threat of a wave of layoffs in the US energy sector, which will nullify the effects of a restarting economy.”

The US crude oil grade WTI rose 23 percent to $ 16.95 a barrel (159 liters) after its price fell below zero for the first time at the beginning of the week. At the beginning of March – before the outbreak of the virus crisis in the USA and before the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia – WTI had still cost twice as much.

This drop in price is a problem especially for shale oil producers. According to experts, because of the complex fracking process, they only work profitably at a price of around $ 50.

Focus on individual values

Nevertheless, investors also accessed these values. The shares of companies like marathon, Occidental or Apache won up to eleven percent. The papers of the oil multinationals Exxon and Chevron each advanced about three percent. The paper from the company active in health care was also among the top values UnitedHealth with plus 3.0 percent.

The titles of Las Vegas Sands, which rose by around twelve percent. The casino operator expects the important Asian business to recover quickly as soon as the travel restrictions there are lifted. Competitors’ shares Wynn and MGM won up to 8.6 percent.

Eli Lilly shares jumped to a record high at $ 162.56. With a smaller plus of 2.1 percent to $ 159.93, they finally went out of the day. Investors recognized the 40 percent year-over-year increase in sales of the blockbuster drug Trulicity for diabetes to a quarterly record of $ 1.2 billion.

By contrast, the shares of Target, even though the retailer’s online sales almost quadrupled in the past quarter, making up for lost business from closed stores. However, the company warned of shrinking profit margins due to wage increases for employees. Target shares lost 2.8 percent.

The titles of Crocs even slipped by more than 16 percent. Known for its rubber slippers, the shoe manufacturer fell short of market expectations with quarterly sales of $ 281.2 million and earnings of $ 0.16 per share. The company also warned of further losses in the current quarter due to virus restrictions.

Among the losers Gilead Sciences with a discount of 4.3 percent. The company denied a media report of disappointing test results with the remdesivir agent for the possible treatment of Covid-19.

The study in China was terminated prematurely due to a lack of participants and was therefore not statistically meaningful, the US pharmaceutical company explained. The Financial Times has presented the process inappropriately, the World Health Organization accidentally posted a draft clinical trial on the Internet. The UN organization confirmed the breakdown and said the document had been removed after the error became known.

Quarterly reports were also in view.

Air Products & Chemicals Withdrawn the 2019/20 financial year forecast for earnings per share from the figures. The industrial gases manufacturer’s paper then gave way by 1.5 percent.

The chip manufacturer’s quarterly report, which was announced after the market closed, was also eagerly awaited Intel, whose shares in the Dow lost 1.8 percent. Intel ultimately disappointed with its earnings outlook for the second quarter, whereupon the papers gave in even more after-hours.

The share certificates of Snap down. The makers of the photo app Snapchat want to get $ 750 million (695 million euros) of fresh money on the market in the face of the corona crisis via convertible bonds.

In the US bond market, trend-setting ten-year government bonds rose 5/32 points to 108 16/32 points and returned 0.603 percent. The euro exchange rate went up and down in US trade and ultimately slid below the $ 1.08 mark again. At the close on Wall Street, the common currency was $ 1.0771. The European Central Bank set the reference price at $ 1.0772 (Wednesday: 1.0867). The dollar thus cost 0.9283 (0.9202) euros.

More: Read here what moves the German stock market on Thursday.

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Lufthansa makes a loss of 1.2 billion euros in the corona crisis

Lufthansa jets

The group has radically cut down its flight schedule.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt The Lufthansa posted an operating loss (adjusted EBIT) of 1.2 billion euros in the first quarter, primarily due to the effects of the corona pandemic. The company announced on late Thursday afternoon. In the same period last year, the largest German airline had posted a loss of 336 million euros. Many airlines are in the red in the first quarter.

Consolidated sales in the first quarter fell on a preliminary basis by 18 percent to 6.4 billion euros. In March alone, sales declined by almost 1.4 billion euros or 47 percent, the company said.

It is currently not foreseeable when the group airlines will be able to resume flight operations beyond the currently applicable return flight schedule. The Group therefore expects a significantly higher operating loss in the second quarter than in the first quarter. The Lufthansa Group’s available liquidity is currently around 4.4 billion euros.

Shortly before the close of trading on Thursday, the Lufthansa share expanded its losses and closed just under two percent in the red.

More: Ryanair boss O’Leary: “Lufthansa wants to enrich the state”

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Wall Street gets off to a good start – US unemployment figures have dropped

Wall Street

The New York Stock Exchange is located on the famous street.

(Photo: AP)

Dusseldorf The declining number of first-time jobless claims in the US seems to be giving investors hope that the economy will quickly recover from the corona shock. The Dow Jones started the trading day with a profit increase of around one percent at 23,543 points. The situation was similar at the start of trading for the S&P 500 (2810 points) and the Nasdaq (8529 points).

The prospect of further stimulus from the US government had prompted investors to buy stocks again on Wednesday. The standard value index Dow Jones closed two percent higher at 23,475 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq advanced 2.8 percent to 8495 points. The broad S&P 500 gained 2.3 percent to 2799 points.

As announced on Thursday, the number of first-time job applications in the US has decreased compared to the previous week: by April 18, 4.4 million Americans had registered unemployment. Previously, 5.2 million people applied for new support. In the meantime, 26 million people have lost their jobs within a month.

However, it is certain that the corona pandemic thus slowed the positive development of the US labor market: In February, the USA celebrated the lowest unemployment rate in decades, and until March, initial applications were regularly below 100,000 a week. Some analysts estimate the US unemployment rate as high as 15 percent.

Look at the individual values

Of the Casino operator Las Vegas Sands expects the important Asian business to recover quickly as soon as the travel restrictions there are lifted. Las Vegas Sands shares then rose 13 percent, while competitors Wynn and MGM gained up to 12 percent.

Things looked worse with the papers from Target out. Although the retailer’s online sales almost quadrupled in the past quarter, thereby compensating for the losses due to closed stores, the share came under pressure: the company warned of shrinking profit margins due to wage increases for employees. The Target shares lost 5.9 percent.

With agency material.

More: Read here what moves the German stock market on Thursday.

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