MELBOURNE

F1 2026: The Familiar Order Returns After Testing – But Don’t Be Fooled

The second of three pre-season tests is in the books, and despite the biggest rule changes in Formula 1 history, the new form guide is beginning to seem a lot like the old one. It’s hard to be definitive when testing isn’t even finished yet, but it’s becoming clear that this year’s grid will be divided in a similar fashion to the grid of 2025.

The Top Four Remain

The top four teams we’ve become accustomed to in recent years still exist, with Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull Racing each other’s most likely rivals. There’s a gap back to the midfield and then at least a couple of tailenders further adrift. However, pinpointing the exact order within those divisions remains unclear.

Interestingly, no team is willing to claim the favorite status. Most of the top teams seem keen to describe themselves as fourth at best, a tactic often seen in pre-season to manage expectations and potentially mislead rivals.

Mercedes and the ‘Reality Check’

Mercedes ended the second test with the fastest time – a 1m 33.669s set by Andrea Kimi Antonelli – but George Russell described the week as a “reality check.” He deflected the spotlight to Red Bull Racing, stating, “They’re very much the team to beat. Red Bull are going to be ahead, so we’ve got work to do.”

Red Bull Downplays Performance

Red Bull Racing, unsurprisingly, disagrees. Technical director Pierre Waché said, “We are not the benchmark for sure. We clearly see the top three teams — Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren — are in front of us. It looks like, from what our analysis is, that we are behind.”

Ferrari’s Cautious Optimism

Charles Leclerc offered a nuanced perspective, acknowledging Red Bull’s power unit progress. He as well highlighted Mercedes’ potential, suggesting they may be concealing their true pace. “I would expect them two especially to be a bit ahead of us … it’s Red Bull and Mercedes in front, and then us,” Leclerc stated.

McLaren’s Assessment

McLaren, the reigning constructors champion running the Mercedes power unit, believes Ferrari and Mercedes are currently at the top.

Testing Times: A Grain of Salt

It’s crucial to remember that raw lap times during testing are not always indicative of true performance. Variables like time of day, fuel loads, engine modes, and tyre choices all play a significant role. However, after three days of the second test, a rough shape is emerging that aligns with expectations.

Time by team, Bahrain days 1–3:

• 1. Mercedes: 1m 33.669s
• 2. Ferrari: +0.540
• 3. McLaren: +0.880
• 4. Red Bull Racing: +1.129
• 5. Haas: +1.725
• 6. Alpine: +2.137
• 7. Audi: +2.622
• 8. Williams: +2.996
• 9. Racing Bulls: +3.139
• 10. Cadillac: +3.155
• 11. Aston Martin: +4.496

Red Bull Racing’s fastest time came on the first day when the track was dustiest, potentially skewing the results.

Long Run Data Confirms Trends

Analyzing long-run data provides a clearer picture. Results appear to support the order suggested by lap times, with Mercedes and Ferrari closely matched at the front, and McLaren a step behind. Red Bull Racing appeared on par with McLaren, but with Isack Hadjar, not Max Verstappen, behind the wheel for some runs.

Ferrari’s Upgrade Plans

Ferrari is poised to bring a major upgrade to next week’s final Bahrain test. The team launched the year with a basic car to analyse reliability and its basic aerodynamic concept. Next week’s car is the one it will bring to Melbourne, potentially changing the competitive landscape.

Williams’ Recovery

Williams completed an equal-best 422 laps for the week in Bahrain, matched only by McLaren and fractionally ahead of Ferrari, in a bid to rule a line under its delayed start to the year. The team also utilized its ‘filming days’ to gain valuable track time.

Cadillac’s Quiet Progress

Cadillac has been the source of red flags throughout pre-season testing, but has quietly impressed the paddock. Despite the stoppages, the team has shown promising reliability and is seemingly in the ballpark with the other teams at the back of the field.

Aston Martin’s Struggles

Aston Martin is clearly struggling, completing the fewest laps of any team and appearing significantly off the pace. Fernando Alonso acknowledged the team needs to unlock more performance and hinted at a long road ahead.

FAQ

Q: Are testing times a reliable indicator of race performance?
A: Not entirely. Testing times are influenced by many factors and shouldn’t be taken as a definitive prediction of race results.

Q: Which team is currently the fastest based on testing?
A: Mercedes set the fastest time, but the competitive picture is still evolving, and several teams appear closely matched.

Q: What is the significance of Ferrari’s planned upgrade?
A: Ferrari’s upgrade could significantly alter the competitive order, as it represents a major step in the development of their 2026 car.

Q: What are the key takeaways from the Bahrain tests?
A: The top four teams from 2025 remain competitive, but the exact order is still unclear. Several teams are making progress, while Aston Martin faces significant challenges.

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